MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TEX

35-38

PregameFri, 7:07 PM EDT

TOR

35-38

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

MacKenzie Gore

SP · #1

4-6

W-L

4.27

ERA

1.31

WHIP

78.0

Last 3 starts

vsMINL(4-6)7.0 IP4 ER10 K

@KC-5.0 IP2 ER6 K

@STLL(4-5)4.2 IP4 ER5 K

Home starter

Dylan Cease

SP · #84

4-3

W-L

2.71

ERA

1.19

WHIP

110

73.0

Last 3 starts

@BOSW(4-3)5.0 IP0 ER7 K

vsPHI-6.0 IP1 ER11 K

vsPITL(3-3)4.2 IP2 ER8 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/25

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low

Hits

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.8± 2.4high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high
Elias DiazTEX
0.5± 0.8medium

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

TOR

.696

OPS

.717

▶

.704

.315

OBP

.319

.314

3.96

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.85

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league