Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+6HOU

HOU

47-50

TEX

48-47

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

37,318 attended

Line movement

191 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

TEX no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.7% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
MacKenzie GoreTEX
6.3± 1.8high

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.0± 2.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

TEX

.737

OPS

◀

.720

.718

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.317

4.64

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.12

4.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.34

1.37

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 9 · TEX 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	2	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	9
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.293	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.315	3	2	2	2	1	2	0
I. Paredes3B	.254	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.239	5	1	1	0	0	0	4
J. Altuve2B	.235	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.LF	.250	4	1	1	4	1	0	2
Y. DiazC	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.222	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
B. MatthewsCF	.197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.218	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	9	10	8	3	4	9

Player

.293

.315

.254

.239

.235

.250

.244

.234

.222

.197

.218

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	6.0	3	1	1	1	7	107
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	3	2	2	1	4	43
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	12	160

Player

P. LambertSP

6.0

107

E. De Los SantosRP

1.0

A. BlubaughRP

2.0

Team

9.0

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.277	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Jung3B	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. NimmoRF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Burger1B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.272	4	2	2	3	2	0	2
E. CarterCF	.186	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.324	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DiazC	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.256	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CauleyCF	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.282	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	7	3	2	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	5.2	8	7	7	2	6	91
G. CollyerRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	25
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
C. MartinRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	25
Team	9.0	10	9	9	4	9	155

Team

HOU

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.