Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at TEX?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 8, 2026

FINAL+12LAA

LAA

37-56

131

TEX

46-46

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

23,288 attended

Line movement

37 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
66.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.3%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.2%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at TEX?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TEX vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high

Hits

Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.0high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Joc PedersonTEX
2.1± 2.5high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.0± 1.9high
Corey SeagerTEX
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.8± 0.9high
Jo AdellLAA
0.6± 0.9high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

TEX

.697

OPS

.720

▶

.721

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.21

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

4.54

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.32

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 13 · TEX 1 (by 12)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	1	0	0	2	4	2	0	2	2	13
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.234	5	3	3	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.234	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
V. Grissom2B	.249	5	2	4	4	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.251	4	3	2	5	2	0	1
D. Guzman3B	.260	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.241	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. SiriCF	.259	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
L. O'HoppeC	.223	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LoweLF	.215	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
Team		40	13	15	13	3	2	9

Player

.234

.234

.249

.251

.260

.241

.259

.223

.215

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. UrenaSP	4.0	1	0	0	5	3	90
S. Natera Jr.RP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	24
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
J. FerminRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	22
M. FarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	3	1	1	5	14	165

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

165

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.236	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Smith2B	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. NimmoRF	.255	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. DuranSS	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.183	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. OsunaLF	.255	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
E. DiazC	.290	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.330	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.223	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CauleyCF	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	3	1	1	5	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	5.0	9	7	7	1	7	90
G. CollyerRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	24
B. PeoplesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	15
K. HigashiokaC	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	16
Team	9.0	15	13	13	2	9	155

Team

LAA

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TEX vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.