Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at TEX?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 22, 2026

FINAL+2CHW

CHW

54-47

TEX

51-51

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

31,127 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TEX no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
53.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.54

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at TEX?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.2pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

CHW

no live price

TEX

★ best

+101DraftKings

edge +6.2pp · implied 47.5%

Book	CHW	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	-122	+101★	+6.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 124 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 1.2high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.1± 2.7high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 0.8high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

TEX

.724

OPS

.720

.718

.316

OBP

.318

.317

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.12

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.34

1.29

WHIP

1.30

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 4 · TEX 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	4
TEX	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Murakami1B	.230	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
M. Vargas3B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.220	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.236	3	3	1	0	0	1	0
C. Meidroth2B	.277	4	0	4	2	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.245	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.183	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. PetersCF	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PerezCF	.147	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	7	4	0	4	7

Player

.278

.230

.245

.220

.236

.277

.245

.183

.285

.263

.147

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	5.0	5	2	2	2	4	79
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19
G. TaylorRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	28
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	12	138

Player

5.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. LangfordLF	.282	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Foscue2B	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. NimmoRF	.268	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. CauleyCF	.273	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. DiazC	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. OsunaLF	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.326	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	5	1	1	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. AlexanderRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	34
C. QuantrillRP	3.0	2	2	2	3	1	55
J. JunisRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	21
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
P. GrayRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
J. LatzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	7	151

Team

CHW

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TEX vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.