Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+5TB

SEA

47-49

56-37

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

22,597 attended

Line movement

58 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

TB no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
67.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.6%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TB vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 119 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.687

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.329

3.98

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

3.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.19

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

SEA 1 · TB 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
TB	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.288	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
D. CanzoneDH	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. RaleighC	.168	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
J. Naylor1B	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. RaleyRF	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.253	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. RoblesRF	.223	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. EmersonSS	.201	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.190	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.192	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	6	1	0	4	10

Player

.211

.288

.264

.168

.251

.229

.253

.223

.201

.190

.143

.192

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GilbertSP	6.2	9	4	4	2	5	96
G. SpeierRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	5
M. RuckerRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	13
Team	8.0	12	6	5	2	5	114

Player

L. GilbertSP

6.2

G. SpeierRP

0.1

M. RuckerRP

1.0

Team

8.0

114

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.320	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.297	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.281	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
C. MullinsCF	.203	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SimpsonLF	.282	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.253	4	1	4	1	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.261	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	12	5	1	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JaxSP	5.0	4	1	1	3	3	69
C. BooserRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	5	30
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	24
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	6	1	1	4	10	139

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TB vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.