Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+1SEA

42-56

SEA

49-50

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

43,485 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 7.0 · -0.5

SEA no-vig %

54.9%

open 54.5% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
58.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.90

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-133

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

54.5%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.8pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

★ best

+156DraftKings

edge +4.8pp · implied 36.7%

SEA

no live price

Book	SF	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+156★	-207	+4.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.5± 1.1high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.9high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Osleivis BasabeSF
2.5± 4.0low
Cole YoungSEA
2.2± 1.5high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 2.6low
Cal RaleighSEA
0.8± 1.0high
Rafael DeversSF
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.725

OPS

◀

.719

.689

.310

OBP

.318

.310

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

4.39

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.36

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SF 3 · SEA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
SF	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.327	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. EldridgeDH	.274	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. SchmittLF	.279	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Devers1B	.245	5	1	1	1	1	0	3
H. RamosLF	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. LeeRF	.304	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. AdamesSS	.230	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.232	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. McCrayCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.105	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CavanaughC	.265	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	7	2	2	3	12

Player

.327

.274

.279

.245

.277

.304

.230

.232

.252

.000

.105

.265

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	6.2	2	3	3	1	5	100
S. HentgesRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
K. WinnRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	10
E. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
D. SmithRP	0.2	0	1	0	1	0	10
Team	9.2	3	4	3	3	8	149

Player

L. WebbSP

6.2

100

1.0

0.1

1.0

0.2

Team

9.2

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.214	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. RodriguezCF	.256	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.281	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.251	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. RaleighC	.165	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.254	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. EmersonSS	.193	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. RoblesRF	.210	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	3	4	1	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WooSP	6.0	6	3	2	2	7	98
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
E. BazardoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
J. FerrerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	10.0	7	3	2	3	12	149

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SEA vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SEA vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.