Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at MIA?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+4MIA

SEA

47-47

MIA

52-42

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

7,815 attended

Line movement

41 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
58.6%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.5%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.9%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at MIA?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

MIA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.5± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Cole YoungSEA
2.2± 1.5high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Cal RaleighSEA
0.8± 1.0high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

MIA

.689

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.325

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.00

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

SEA 4 · MIA 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	4
MIA	0	2	0	4	0	0	2	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.210	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. ArozarenaLF	.287	3	2	1	1	1	2	0
D. CanzoneDH	.269	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. RaleighC	.168	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Naylor1B	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.235	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. RoblesRF	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. EmersonSS	.206	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
Team		33	4	7	3	2	6	9

Player

.210

.287

.269

.168

.251

.235

.252

.220

.206

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. MillerSP	5.0	9	6	4	4	3	81
M. RuckerRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	1	29
C. WilcoxRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	8.0	12	8	6	5	4	122

Player

B. MillerSP

5.0

M. RuckerRP

2.0

C. WilcoxRP

1.0

Team

8.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.286	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.345	3	1	1	2	0	2	0
X. Edwards2B	.302	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. Stowers1B	.243	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. ConineRF	.264	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
E. RuizRF	.245	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.199	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
L. Jimenez3B	.214	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.278	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	12	7	1	5	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	5.0	3	2	1	4	5	79
L. BacharRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	31
W. KempnerRP	0.1	2	2	2	2	0	17
C. FaucherRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
T. ZuberRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	7	4	3	6	9	146

Team

SEA

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIA vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.