Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 26, 2026

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

42-41

CLE

42-40

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

32,832 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

CLE no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
64.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.6%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.4pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

CLE

★ best

-128DraftKings

edge +11.4pp · implied 52.6%

Book	SEA	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-102	-128★	+11.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Josh NaylorSEA
1.2± 1.1high
Steven KwanCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.7± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

Cal RaleighSEA
0.8± 1.6high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.5high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.6± 1.4high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.9high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

CLE

.687

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.309

OBP

.318

.310

3.99

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.79

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 3 · CLE 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	3
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ArozarenaLF	.285	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. RodriguezCF	.247	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
C. RaleighC	.165	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
D. CanzoneDH	.272	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
J. Naylor1B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.224	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. EmersonSS	.212	2	2	1	1	1	2	1
L. RaleyRF	.241	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.230	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	1	6	13

Player

.285

.247

.165

.272

.254

.224

.133

.251

.212

.241

.230

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	4	91
J. FerrerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	7	126

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Manzardo1B	.233	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.240	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. IngleC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. KwanLF	.213	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.217	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.180	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.192	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.209	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	6.0	2	1	1	2	9	90
T. HerrinRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	23
D. EspinoRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	1	18
H. GaddisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
M. FestaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	18
Team	9.0	6	3	3	6	13	157

Team

SEA

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CLE vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.