MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

SEA

38-36

PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDT

CLE

39-34

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

Joey Cantillo

SP · #54

5-3

W-L

4.38

ERA

1.49

WHIP

72.0

Last 3 starts

vsDETW(5-3)5.0 IP1 ER4 K

@TEXL(4-3)5.0 IP7 ER7 K

@NYY-4.0 IP4 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSEA wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.1± 2.7medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.9high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
1.1± 1.1high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.1± 2.7high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
2.0± 2.9high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Colt EmersonSEA
0.6± 0.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high
Mitch GarverSEA
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
Luis CastilloSEA
2.6± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

CLE

.712

OPS

◀

.717

.685

.317

OBP

.319

.316

4.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.97

3.65

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.73

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league