Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+4SEA

TOR

42-48

SEA

47-44

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

37,415 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

SEA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

50.0%

open 56.3% · -6.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
66.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.7%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-6.31

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-143

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 1.0high
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.2± 0.9high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.1± 2.5high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

George SpringerTOR
0.8± 1.2high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.5high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.7± 4.0low
Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

SEA

.684

OPS

.720

.687

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.309

3.95

Runs / G

4.50

▶

3.99

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TOR 0 · SEA 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SEA	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.285	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.266	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. Okamoto3B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.189	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.293	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. KeysDH	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Urias2B	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	0	3	0	0	2	6

Player

.285

.266

.235

.189

.249

.293

.190

.316

.267

.234

.237

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. YesavageSP	6.0	3	3	2	2	7	96
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	32
Team	8.0	6	4	3	2	10	134

Player

T. YesavageSP

6.0

T. RogersRP

1.0

M. FluhartyRP

1.0

Team

8.0

134

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.212	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.286	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.164	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. Naylor1B	.251	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.228	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.257	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.194	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. EmersonSS	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. RoblesRF	.244	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	6	4	1	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	7.0	2	0	0	2	5	92
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	6	113

Team

TOR

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SEA vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.