Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at HOU?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 17, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

BAL

47-51

HOU

47-52

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

31,867 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

50.8%

open 50.2% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.2%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.30

CLV pp

Open price

-111

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

50.2%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at HOU?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.8pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

HOU

★ best

+232DraftKings

edge +33.8pp · implied 28.3%

Book	BAL	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-322	+232★	+33.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low
Ronel BlancoHOU
5.3± 3.1low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.8± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.3high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.3± 2.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 2.5high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high
Shane BazBAL
2.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

HOU

.711

OPS

.719

▶

.739

.320

OBP

.318

.321

4.53

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.67

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.65

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.38

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 3 · HOU 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3
HOU	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.255	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. WardLF	.256	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.250	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
S. BasalloC	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BeaversRF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. CowserCF	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.194	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Holliday2B	.215	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.252	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		31	3	5	3	1	4	13

Player

.222

.255

.256

.250

.245

.227

.215

.194

.215

.236

.252

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KremerSP	4.0	4	2	2	3	5	83
A. NunezRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	0	36
G. WolframRP	0.1	1	0	0	2	0	15
C. SandersRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	14
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
T. WellsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	29
Team	9.0	6	2	2	9	8	193

Player

4.0

2.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

193

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.293	3	2	2	0	0	2	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.321	3	0	2	1	0	2	0
I. Paredes3B	.254	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Altuve2B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Wade Jr.LF	.242	1	0	0	0	0	3	0
C. SmithRF	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. SpenceCF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. VazquezC	.217	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.228	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	6	2	0	9	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	6.0	3	1	1	3	10	104
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
B. KingRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	17
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	5	3	3	4	13	149

Team

BAL

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.