Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at BAL?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+5BAL

CHW

45-40

BAL

40-48

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

19,045 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

BAL no-vig %

56.2%

open 56.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.7%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
41.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.3%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.6%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+118

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

43.8%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at BAL?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.2pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best

-108DraftKings

edge +16.2pp · implied 48.8%

BAL

no live price

Book	CHW	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-108★	-120	+16.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.4± 3.0high
Brandon YoungBAL
5.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.2± 1.3low
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.2± 1.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.4± 3.4low
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.2± 1.9low
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.9low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high
Luis CastilloCHW
2.5± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

BAL

.722

OPS

◀

.720

.712

.316

OBP

.318

▶

.320

4.75

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

4.03

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

CHW 1 · BAL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BAL	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.295	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. Vargas3B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MontgomeryRF	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.253	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Meidroth2B	.272	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. AcunaSS	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RomoC	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	1	1	6

Player

.295

.244

.243

.239

.253

.272

.286

.217

.133

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. SchultzSP	4.1	2	3	3	4	7	87
B. HudsonRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	10
T. RichardsRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	2	31
J. HicksRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
B. EisertRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16
Team	8.0	7	6	6	7	12	166

Player

4.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

166

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.227	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. RutschmanC	.252	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
T. WardLF	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.247	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Mayo3B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. O'NeillRF	.187	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
L. TaverasCF	.248	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
J. Holliday2B	.196	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
B. Alexander3B	.306	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
S. BasalloC	.256	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. CowserCF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	6	7	5	2	7	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KremerSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	4	79
T. WellsRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	20
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	6	110

Team

CHW

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.