Park factor
98 total idx
Angel Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
BAL
BAL
34-40
PregameWed, 4:07 PM EDT
LAA
LAA
30-44
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAngel Stadium · Anaheim, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
T
Trey Gibson
SP · #43
1-2
W-L
5.91
ERA
1.59
WHIP
12
K
21.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDL(1-2)4.1 IP6 ER7 K
vsSEAL(1-1)4.2 IP3 ER0 K
vsTBW(1-0)5.2 IP1 ER1 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/22
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · BAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAA vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 78 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.8± 3.7medium
- Jose SorianoLAA5.6± 1.9medium
- Kyle BradishBAL5.2± 3.1low
Hits
- Jo AdellLAA1.4± 1.5high
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.1± 1.2high
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.1± 2.5high
- Jo AdellLAA2.0± 2.3high
- Zach NetoLAA2.0± 2.4high
RBIs
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.0± 1.7high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 0.9high
- Trey ManciniLAA0.8± 1.1low
Earned runs
- Trevor RogersBAL3.7± 2.4low
- Trey GibsonBAL2.8± 2.8low
- Shane BazBAL2.6± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
LAA
.723
OPS
◀
.717
.714
.322
OBP
.319
.319
4.65
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.50
4.57
Team ERA
4.17
4.55
1.40
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.42
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
