Park factor
97 total idx
Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
KC
KC
30-45
PregameSat, 7:05 PM EDT
BAL
BAL
35-40
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesBAL leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.3%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BAL vs KC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kyle BradishBAL5.7± 3.6medium
- Noah CameronKC5.0± 3.0low
- Shane BazBAL4.8± 2.9low
Hits
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.2± 1.2high
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC1.2± 1.2high
- Carter JensenKC1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Carter JensenKC2.0± 2.4high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.9± 2.5high
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.8± 2.9high
RBIs
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.0± 1.7high
- Carter JensenKC0.8± 1.0high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Trevor RogersBAL3.7± 2.4low
- Trey GibsonBAL2.8± 2.8low
- Michael WachaKC2.8± 2.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
BAL
.701
OPS
.718
▶.724
.318
OBP
.319
▶.322
4.01
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.65
4.48
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.55
1.37
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.40
8.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant