Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at BAL?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+6BAL

38-59

BAL

46-51

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

31,355 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BAL no-vig %

58.3%

open 57.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.3%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.98

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at BAL?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.3pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

★ best

+147DraftKings

edge +13.3pp · implied 38.0%

BAL

no live price

Book	KC	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+147★	-194	+13.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Brandon YoungBAL
5.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.4low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high
Salvador PerezKC
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.6low
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.711

OPS

.719

.711

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.320

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.53

4.87

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.26

1.43

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.35

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

KC 2 · BAL 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
BAL	0	2	0	0	0	5	1	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.236	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
B. Witt Jr.SS	.286	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.234	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. PerezDH	.209	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Massey2B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.206	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.240	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		38	2	10	2	0	0	11

Player

.236

.286

.260

.234

.222

.209

.260

.206

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LugoSP	4.0	4	2	2	2	6	89
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
M. StrahmRP	0.1	4	5	5	1	1	21
J. SchreiberRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	11
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	25
B. WayRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	20
Team	8.0	12	8	8	4	10	172

Player

4.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.224	5	1	3	1	0	0	2
T. WardLF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
D. BeaversRF	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.252	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. BasalloC	.248	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.312	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
C. CowserCF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.237	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.210	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mayo3B	.193	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.195	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.254	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		34	8	12	7	2	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	4.2	8	2	2	0	9	104
A. NunezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
G. WolframRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13
Y. CanoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	10	2	2	0	11	158

Team

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BAL vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.