Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+1NYM

NYM

37-53

109

ATL

52-36

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

28,621 attended

Line movement

50 snapshots

ATL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

ATL no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.1%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
63.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.2%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

ATL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 0.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high
Francisco LindorNYM
1.9± 3.5high

RBIs

Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.2± 3.3high
Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

ATL

.685

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.91

4.12

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.69

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 10 · ATL 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	10
ATL	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	9

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.225	4	3	1	1	0	1	0
J. SotoLF	.299	4	1	2	2	0	1	0
B. Bichette3B	.258	5	1	3	3	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BengeRF	.255	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.207	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.265	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
L. TorrensC	.213	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Baty3B	.218	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.223	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		37	10	12	10	2	4	5

Player

.225

.299

.258

.211

.255

.207

.265

.213

.218

.223

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. McLeanSP	6.0	5	3	2	1	5	96
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
H. BrazobanRP	0.1	4	5	5	1	1	20
D. WilliamsRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	2	22
Team	9.0	12	9	8	2	11	162

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.251	4	2	2	4	1	0	0
O. Albies2B	.271	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Olson1B	.271	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Harris IICF	.302	5	1	2	3	0	0	2
M. DubonLF	.275	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.270	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. Riley3B	.211	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.225	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. JarvisSS	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.218	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. MateoSS	.248	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	9	12	8	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. PerezSP	4.1	6	5	4	2	1	77
T. KinleyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
D. YoungRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
D. DoddRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
C. CarrascoRP	2.0	5	5	5	2	1	44
Team	9.0	12	10	9	4	5	162

Team

NYM

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATL vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.