Recent form
10-0
MIN +9.2 vs LA -2.1 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
LA
LA
11-18
PregameThu, 9:00 PM EDTPrime Video
MIN
MIN
25-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Minnesota Lynx Thursday at 8/6 - 9:00 PM EDT. MIN arrives on a 6-game win streak (6-0 in their last 6).
Vegas opened MIN as a 15.5-point favorite with the total at 188.5. MIN's moneyline implies a 94% break-even, LA the inverse. MIN comes in with 3 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 188.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedTotal ↘ 1.0pt over 27m58m ago
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
47
FG %
48
Season series
MIN leads series 2-0
Jun 18MIN99@LA83
MIN99@LA83Jul 15LA87@MIN96
LA87@MIN96Aug 7LA@MINtoday
LA@MINtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
188.5
High-scoring · +23.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 27m
Moneyline
LA+85011%MIN-145094%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
188.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
LA @ MIN
StorylineMIN on a 10-game roll.
Rest going in
MIN +3 days
LAStandard
1 day
last game Aug 5
MINLong rest
4 days
last game Aug 2
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
MIN -15.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
188.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
MIN -1450
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
LAmetricMIN
11-18
Record
25-6
#5
Conf rank
#1
-4.7
Pt diff
+9.3
L1
Streak
W10
3-7
Last 10
10-0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
MIN -15.5·O/U 188.5·LA +850/MIN -1450
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs LA.
MIN enters on a 10-game win streak; LA is 3-7 over its last 10.
88.8%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN10–0+9.2
- LA3–7-2.1
Situational
- MIN4d rest
- LA1d restB2B
- +3.0d differential
MIN has 3 more rest days. MIN has 0 straight road games; LA has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kayla McBrideMIN20.7points · ±8.2
Kayla McBride · 20.7 pts · last-10 22.7 vs season 17.6.
- Olivia MilesMIN20.2points · ±8.0
Olivia Miles · 20.2 pts · last-10 21.2 vs season 18.6.
- Nneka OgwumikeLA17.5points · ±5.2
Nneka Ogwumike · 17.5 pts · last-10 17.9 vs season 17.
Head-to-head · 5-0 · last 5
MIN is 5-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-14LA @ MIN78–101
- 2025-06-22LA @ MIN66–82
- 2025-07-10MIN @ LA91–82
- 2026-06-17MIN @ LA99–83
- 2026-07-15LA @ MIN87–96
Line move
open -1350→-1350flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
86.8%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
86.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.7%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
85.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.78 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-0.55
CLV pp
Open price
+800
Close price
+850
Open no-vig
10.7%
Close no-vig
10.1%
Market faded the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at MIN?
- The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
MIN vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 90 high confidence
Points
- Kayla McBrideMIN20.7± 8.2high
- Olivia MilesMIN20.2± 8.0high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA17.5± 5.2high
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.1± 3.1high
- Dearica HambyLA7.5± 3.4high
- Natasha HowardMIN7.1± 2.9high
Assists
- Erica WheelerLA6.0± 2.2high
- Olivia MilesMIN6.0± 2.8high
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 0.9high
- Dorka JuhaszMIN1.0± 0.3low
- Nia CoffeyMIN0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.9± 1.4high
- Dearica HambyLA1.8± 1.1high
- Natasha HowardMIN1.7± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA