Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
LA
7-8
MIN
13-3
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Minnesota Lynx Thursday at 8/6 - 9:00 PM EDT. LA is 3-4 in their last 7. MIN arrives on a 3-game win streak (7-1 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
45
FG %
50
Season series
MIN leads series 1-0
MIN99@LA83LA@MINupcomingLA@MINtodayScouting report
LA @ MIN
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -51.2
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
7-8
Record
13-3
#6
Conf rank
#1
-3.2
Pt diff
+12.9
L2
Streak
W3
5-5
Last 10
9-1
41.3
Power score
92.5
#9
Power rank
#1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.4± 14.0low
- Olivia MilesMIN18.9± 8.9medium
- Natasha HowardMIN16.8± 6.5medium
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 4.8medium
- Dearica HambyLA7.6± 2.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.1± 2.5medium
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.4± 3.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.5± 2.8medium
- Erica WheelerLA4.6± 2.5medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.3± 1.3medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 1.7medium
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.5medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.2medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
MIN
45.7%
FG%
44.6
▶50.4%
31.2%
3PT %
33.4
▶40.0%
87.7
PPG
85.7
▶92.3
19.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.8
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.1