Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at TEX?

The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

48-66

TEX

56-58

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

26,959 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

64.1%

open 63.5% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.79

CLV pp

Open price

+162

Close price

+168

Open no-vig

36.5%

Close no-vig

35.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at TEX?: The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.3pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

★ best

+185DraftKings

edge +7.3pp · implied 34.0%

TEX

no live price

Book	SF	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+185★	-215	+7.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TEX vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
MacKenzie GoreTEX
6.2± 2.0high

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.2± 0.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Osleivis BasabeSF
2.5± 3.4low
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.3± 2.8high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 2.0low
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Daniel SusacSF
0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.0± 2.1high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.723

OPS

.720

.719

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.318

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.37

Team ERA

4.18

4.33

1.36

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SF 4 · TEX 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4
TEX	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

San Francisco GiantsTexas Rangers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BasabeSS	.294	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. LeeRF	.305	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. SusacC	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Kennedy1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. LeonardSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. McCrayCF	.120	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. Koss2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.242	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. Furman2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.256	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
D. SmithRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	6	4	1	5	8

Player

.294

.305

.222

.246

.257

.000

.000

.120

.167

.242

.000

.256

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. TidwellRP	5.0	6	2	2	1	3	100
J. FoleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
J. BrubakerRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	15
R. SanmartinRP	0.2	3	1	1	1	1	14
A. HouserSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SmithRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	14
Team	8.2	11	5	5	4	5	150

Player

B. TidwellRP

5.0

100

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

Team

8.2

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.250	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.264	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. SeagerSS	.201	4	2	3	0	0	1	0
B. NimmoRF	.271	5	0	3	1	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.278	5	0	3	4	0	0	1
E. CarterCF	.201	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.243	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Lopez2B	.285	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.237	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.255	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CauleyCF	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	5	11	5	0	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	6.0	3	0	0	3	4	99
C. SilsethRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	14
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
P. GrayRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
J. LatzRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	24
Team	9.0	6	4	3	5	8	154

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TEX vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.