Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

DAL

19-11

PregameWed, 7:30 PM EDTMNMT, WNBA League Pass, KFAA-TV

WSH

16-12

ATS/DAL -3.5O/U/166.5ML/DAL-148

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

DAL +6.6 vs WSH +1.3 margin

DAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+2.0 days

WSH 5 rest vs DAL 3

WSH has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+8.9

WSH Elo vs DAL Elo

DAL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing WSH uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 58/5 - 7:30 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -3.5

Preview · WNBA

allas Wings visit Washington Mystics Wednesday at 8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT. DAL is 3-4 in their last 7. WSH arrives on a 4-game win streak (4-2 in their last 6).

Vegas opened DAL as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 166.5. WSH's moneyline implies a 45% break-even, DAL the inverse. WSH comes in with 2 extra days of rest.

For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 166.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 19

WSH69@

DAL92

Jul 31

DAL75@

WSH81

Aug 5

DAL@

WSHtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-14860%

WSH+12445%

4· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

166.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

DAL @ WSH

8/5 - 7:30 PM EDT

StorylineWSH on a 4-game roll.

Rest going in

WSH +2 days

DALStandard

2 days

last game Aug 2

WSHLong rest

4 days

last game Jul 31

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

DAL -3.5

Model

WSH -9.5

Edge

split

Total

Market

166.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

DAL -148

Model

WSH

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

DALmetricWSH

19-11

Record

16-12

Conf rank

+4.1

Pt diff

-1.7

Streak

7-3

Last 10

7-3

50.3

Power score

59.8

#10

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

DAL -3.5·O/U 166.5·DAL -148/WSH +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs DAL.

WSH enters on a 4-game win streak; DAL is 7-3 over its last 10.

51.8%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH7–3+1.3
DAL7–3+6.6

Situational

WSH5d rest
DAL3d rest
+2.0d differential

WSH has 2 more rest days. WSH has 0 straight road games; DAL has 0.

Model angle

+9.0ppon WSH

WSH's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+4.1pp
▲Recent form+2.2pp
▲Rest advantage+1.6pp

Players to watch

Paige BueckersDAL
19.6points · ±7.7
Paige Bueckers · 19.6 pts · last-10 19.6 vs season 19.7.
Shakira AustinWSH
18.1points · ±5.5
Shakira Austin · 18.1 pts · last-10 19.8 vs season 15.5.
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
17.2points · ±6.5
Arike Ogunbowale · 17.2 pts · last-10 18.7 vs season 15.1.

Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5

WSH is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-22DAL @ WSH88–91
2025-06-29WSH @ DAL71–79
2025-08-10WSH @ DAL91–78
2026-05-18WSH @ DAL69–92
2026-07-31DAL @ WSH75–81

Line move

open +120→+124toward DAL

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
58.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
57.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.6%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like WSH.

WSH's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+9.0

pp edge · WSH

-0.86

CLV pp

Pass

42.9%

±10.6pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-1.7pp edge).

Edge

+0.1pp

-8.9pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.24

-1.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 9.0pp · WSH over DAL

▲
Model confidence90% conf
WSH clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.1pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
WSH is 4-1 over its last 5; DAL is 2-3.
+2.2pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
WSH has 5 days rest; DAL has 3.
+1.6pp
▲
Venue split72% conf
WSH's venue form is 9.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.4pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp away from WSH since open.
-0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
WSH has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.5pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.0pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

WSH

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +9.0pp · implied 42.8%

Book	DAL	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-148	+124★	+9.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
19.6± 7.7high
Shakira AustinWSH
18.1± 5.5high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
17.2± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.6± 4.2high
Shakira AustinWSH
9.6± 3.5high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.9± 3.6high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
5.9± 2.3high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.8± 2.9high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Shakira AustinWSH
1.3± 1.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
1.1± 1.2high
Haley JonesDAL
1.0± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Dallas Wings at Washington Mystics

WSH vs DAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like WSH.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs DAL.