New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+6TOR

NYM

36-51

TOR

41-46

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,842 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

TOR no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.5%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+39.4pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYM

★ best

+1080DraftKings

edge +39.4pp · implied 13.7%

TOR

no live price

Book	NYM	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+1080★	-115	+39.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.2± 0.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
1.9± 3.5high
Tyrone TaylorNYM
1.9± 2.3high
George SpringerTOR
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
George SpringerTOR
0.8± 1.2high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.7± 4.0low
Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.9± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

TOR

.683

OPS

.719

.682

.303

OBP

.318

.304

4.04

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.92

4.10

Team ERA

4.18

4.07

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYM 3 · TOR 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
TOR	1	0	4	0	0	0	4	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.259	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. SotoLF	.293	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. LindorSS	.216	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
A.J. EwingCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Young1B	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.211	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.206	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.178	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	5	3	2	2	11

Player

.259

.293

.250

.216

.268

.245

.228

.211

.206

.178

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	4.0	7	5	5	3	4	91
J. GerberRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	16
C. PerezRP	1.1	5	4	4	1	2	30
A.J. MinterRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	12	9	9	5	7	151

Player

4.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.299	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.267	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
K. Okamoto3B	.240	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.258	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.212	2	2	2	0	0	2	0
Y. PinangoLF	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.299	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
S. KeysDH	.167	4	1	1	3	1	0	2
A. GimenezSS	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. StrawRF	.239	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
L. Urias2B	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	9	12	9	2	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
S. MilesRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	5	46
P. CorbinSP	5.0	4	3	3	0	5	73
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	11	133

Team

NYM

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.