Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+3COL

MIA

46-41

COL

34-53

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

18,798 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

31.0%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
39.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.4%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.5pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

-144DraftKings

edge +10.5pp · implied 56.4%

COL

no live price

Book	MIA	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-144★	+119	+10.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5± 1.9high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.5high

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.1high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.0± 0.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.3± 2.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.9high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.2± 1.6high
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.4high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.1± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

COL

.734

OPS

.720

.741

.326

OBP

.318

.323

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.77

4.03

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.50

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

MIA 3 · COL 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	3
COL	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.332	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
L. HicksC	.283	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.221	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.277	2	0	1	2	0	2	0
K. Stowers1B	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Jimenez3B	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NavarretoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. CaissieRF	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. ConineRF	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.256	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.303	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	1	2	11

Player

.332

.244

.283

.221

.277

.231

.211

.000

.240

.280

.256

.303

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	6.0	6	5	1	0	5	78
T. ZuberRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	14
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	8.0	7	6	2	0	6	97

Player

M. MeyerSP

6.0

T. ZuberRP

1.0

J. KingRP

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.271	4	2	3	3	1	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.243	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Castro2B	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. FreemanRF	.274	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.313	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.258	3	2	1	1	1	0	1
E. TovarSS	.205	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.266	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	7	6	3	0	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	5.0	6	2	2	1	7	85
J. MejiaRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	3	25
J. HergetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	11	132

Team

MIA

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.