Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at KC?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+4TB

50-33

35-52

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

13,798 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.5 · -0.5

KC no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

24.8%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
35.1%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
33.7%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
33.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.99

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-143

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at KC?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

no live price

Book	TB	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-352	+251	+0.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.6± 3.8high
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Griffin JaxTB
4.9± 2.4high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.3high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.0± 0.7high
Jonny DeLucaTB
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Luke MaileKC
1.8± 2.3low
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.8high
Salvador PerezKC
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.9low
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.7± 1.0high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high
Michael WachaKC
2.3± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.729

OPS

◀

.720

.713

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.314

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.16

3.68

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · KC 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.329	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.294	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.293	4	1	1	2	1	0	3
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.271	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.212	4	1	2	2	1	0	2
T. WallsSS	.231	4	0	3	0	0	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.225	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.218	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.254	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	11	4	2	0	10

Player

.329

.294

.293

.200

.271

.212

.231

.225

.218

.254

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. McClanahanSP	6.0	3	0	0	0	4	69
C. SulserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
G. CleavingerRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	18
K. KellyRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	6	0	0	1	7	111

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

9.0

111

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.264	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. MarteRF	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. PerezDH	.201	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Loftin3B	.229	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TolbertSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.261	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. MisnerCF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	6	0	0	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LugoSP	6.0	9	3	3	0	7	85
M. StrahmRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. CuasRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	3	42
Team	9.0	11	4	4	0	10	136

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.