Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 26, 2026

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

46-36

NYM

34-48

Citi Field · Queens, New York

39,077 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
40.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.8%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.9pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

NYM

★ best

+227DraftKings

edge +4.9pp · implied 28.7%

Book	PHI	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-315	+227★	+4.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.9high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.1± 0.9low

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
1.9± 3.5high
Tyrone TaylorNYM
1.9± 2.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.2± 3.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

NYM

.702

OPS

◀

.720

.685

.303

OBP

.318

.304

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.24

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.12

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 2 · NYM 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
NYM	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.235	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.256	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Harper1B	.275	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.319	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. HillRF	.357	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
J.T. RealmutoC	.204	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.239	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. SosaLF	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.241	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	9	2	0	2	9

Player

.235

.256

.275

.220

.319

.357

.204

.239

.229

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	7.0	4	1	1	1	5	98
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	7	126

Player

Z. WheelerSP

7.0

O. KerkeringRP

1.0

J. DuranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SotoLF	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.254	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
F. LindorSS	.216	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Young1B	.242	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.264	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. MauricioSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.213	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	5	1	0	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ThorntonSP	6.0	5	1	1	1	7	78
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	18
C. PerezRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	21
Team	9.0	9	2	2	2	9	117

Team

PHI

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.