MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

PHI

40-33

PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDT

NYM

32-41

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Zack Wheeler

SP · #45

6-1

W-L

2.01

ERA

0.85

WHIP

62.2

Last 3 starts

vsMIAW(6-1)6.0 IP0 ER9 K

@TOR-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsSDW(5-1)7.0 IP2 ER8 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/18

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.2± 2.6low

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.0± 1.5high

Total bases

Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.3high
Juan SotoNYM
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high
Bryson StottPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

NYM

.686

OPS

◀

.717

.665

.297

OBP

.319

.296

4.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

4.05

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.97

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.