MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

CHC

38-36

PregameFri, 7:40 PM EDT

MIL

44-26

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Shota Imanaga

SP · #18

4-6

W-L

4.26

ERA

1.06

WHIP

86.2

Last 3 starts

vsCOL-5.2 IP1 ER3 K

@COL-5.0 IP0 ER7 K

vsATH-6.0 IP6 ER5 K

Home starter

Kyle Harrison

SP · #52

8-1

W-L

2.47

ERA

1.10

WHIP

65.2

Last 3 starts

vsPHIW(8-1)6.0 IP0 ER3 K

@ATH-2.1 IP8 ER4 K

vsSFW(7-1)5.2 IP1 ER12 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesCHC win series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.4± 5.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.4high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.3± 3.6high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 3.2high
Brice TurangMIL
2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
0.9± 1.3high
Jake BauersMIL
0.9± 1.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

MIL

.726

OPS

.717

.733

.332

OBP

.319

▶

.339

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.31

4.24

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.25

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league