Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at MIL?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 26, 2026

FINAL+4MIL

CHC

44-38

MIL

50-29

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

41,021 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

69.9%

open 69.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.2%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.8%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.00

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+218

Close price

+198

Open no-vig

30.1%

Close no-vig

32.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at MIL?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.8pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best

+223DraftKings

edge +25.8pp · implied 29.1%

MIL

no live price

Book	CHC	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+223★	-307	+25.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.5± 2.8high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.0± 2.8low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.4high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.6± 3.1high
Brice TurangMIL
2.1± 1.9high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.0± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.1high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
3.2± 3.2high
Aaron CivaleCHC
3.0± 2.7medium
Robert GasserMIL
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

MIL

.752

OPS

◀

.720

.737

.339

OBP

.318

.337

5.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.05

4.11

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.48

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHC 2 · MIL 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.287	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
A. Bregman3B	.244	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.260	2	1	1	2	1	1	1
I. HappLF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Hoerner2B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.277	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. ShawRF	.244	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.229	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	3	2	1	7	8

Player

.287

.244

.237

.260

.227

.236

.277

.244

.196

.229

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	5.0	5	1	1	3	4	89
E. RobertsRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	14
J. MurrayRP	2.0	4	3	3	1	4	46
Team	8.0	11	6	6	5	8	149

Player

C. ReaSP

5.0

E. RobertsRP

1.0

J. MurrayRP

2.0

Team

8.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.261	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.299	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. Turang2B	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. ContrerasC	.306	3	1	2	2	1	1	1
J. Bauers1B	.269	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
A. Vaughn1B	.342	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.248	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
C. PrattSS	.276	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
D. Hamilton3B	.234	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
S. FrelickRF	.236	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	11	6	2	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MisiorowskiSP	6.0	2	1	1	4	8	107
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
A. AshbyRP	1.0	0	1	1	2	0	15
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	26
Team	9.0	3	2	2	7	8	161

Team

CHC

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIL vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.