Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
MIA
MIA
36-38
PregameFri, 8:15 PM EDT
STL
STL
40-31
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Max Meyer
SP · #23
7-0
W-L
2.75
ERA
1.12
WHIP
95
K
85.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@PITW(7-0)6.0 IP1 ER9 K
vsARI-5.1 IP2 ER5 K
@WSHW(6-0)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
Home starter
Dustin May
SP · #3
5-6
W-L
3.75
ERA
1.14
WHIP
75
K
81.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(5-6)9.0 IP0 ER9 K
@NYMW(4-6)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsTEX-5.2 IP3 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSTL leads series 4-0-2
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Max MeyerMIA6.6± 1.8medium
- Dustin MaySTL5.7± 3.6low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.0± 3.2low
Hits
- Otto LopezMIA1.5± 0.8high
- Liam HicksMIA1.2± 0.8high
- Blaze JordanSTL1.2± 1.1low
Total bases
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.5± 1.7high
- Blaze JordanSTL2.4± 3.6low
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.3± 1.8high
RBIs
- Blaze JordanSTL1.0± 1.6low
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.0± 1.4high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.8± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA3.3± 3.0medium
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.7± 2.2low
- Kyle LeahySTL2.5± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
STL
.701
OPS
.717
▶.721
.321
OBP
.319
.324
4.22
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.58
4.17
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.06
1.26
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.32
8.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
