MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

29-45

PregameFri, 7:40 PM EDT

CHW

38-33

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Stephen Kolek

SP · #32

4-1

W-L

2.68

ERA

1.03

WHIP

50.1

Last 3 starts

vsHOUW(4-1)7.1 IP0 ER4 K

vsTEX-5.0 IP1 ER3 K

@CIN-7.0 IP2 ER8 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.2± 3.1low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.4± 2.3low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.9high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.7± 3.0low
Tristan PetersCHW
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.6low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHW

.696

OPS

.717

▶

.733

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.95

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.72

4.51

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.39

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league