Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 26, 2026

FINAL+5BOS

NYY

48-33

BOS

34-46

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

33,353 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

48.3%

open 47.8% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.9%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.5pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

+546DraftKings

edge +32.5pp · implied 14.5%

BOS

no live price

Book	NYY	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	+546★	-1040	+32.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.1± 3.3low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.0high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.0± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.9± 1.1high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.6± 2.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.7± 1.6high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.0± 1.3high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.6high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.5± 1.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BOS

.723

OPS

◀

.720

.709

.311

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.53

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.23

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

NYY 1 · BOS 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
BOS	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Goldschmidt1B	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. CaballeroSS	.256	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.262	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
S. JonesCF	.226	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WellsC	.164	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		30	1	3	1	0	2	7

Player

.295

.242

.264

.234

.256

.226

.262

.226

.286

.280

.164

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	5.2	7	5	5	3	0	90
R. YarbroughRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	22
Y. De los SantosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
Team	8.0	9	6	6	4	2	128

Player

W. WarrenSP

5.2

R. YarbroughRP

1.1

Y. De los SantosRP

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GasperC	.243	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.272	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. Contreras1B	.281	3	1	2	2	1	1	1
J. DuranLF	.201	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.229	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
A. Seigler2B	.321	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.275	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
T. ChengSS	.333	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
Team		31	6	9	6	1	4	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	7.0	1	0	0	2	7	88
T. KahnleRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	21
R. WatsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	3	1	1	2	7	122

Team

NYY

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.