MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

NYY

44-27

PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDT

BOS

29-41

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

104 total idx

Fenway Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Gerrit Cole

SP · #45

2-1

W-L

2.57

ERA

1.00

WHIP

28.0

Last 3 starts

vsCHWW(2-1)6.0 IP2 ER6 K

@CLE-4.0 IP2 ER4 K

vsCLEL(1-1)5.1 IP4 ER2 K

Home starter

Payton Tolle

SP · #70

3-4

W-L

2.93

ERA

1.06

WHIP

58.1

Last 3 starts

vsTORL(3-4)5.0 IP3 ER6 K

@TBL(3-3)6.0 IP4 ER3 K

vsBALW(3-2)6.0 IP0 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesNYY win series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.7low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.3± 0.8high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.0high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
2.6± 3.2high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.2± 1.6high
Ben RiceNYY
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BOS

.770

OPS

◀

.717

.697

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.21

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.94

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.