Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at SF?

The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 26, 2026

FINAL+2ATL

ATL

49-31

33-48

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

39,051 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 7.5 · +1.0

SF no-vig %

47.8%

open 46.3% · +1.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.1%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.6%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.5%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.70

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+107

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

46.3%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at SF?: The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.7pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

★ best

+123DraftKings

edge +11.7pp · implied 42.0%

Book	ATL	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	-163	+123★	+11.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high
Robbie RaySF
4.8± 1.8high

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 1.4high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.1± 0.7high
Rafael DeversSF
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.5± 4.0low
Rafael DeversSF
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 2.6low
Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Rafael DeversSF
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

.733

OPS

◀

.719

.725

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.67

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.39

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 3 · SF 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
SF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.304	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.267	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.273	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.281	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
D. BaldwinC	.265	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Riley3B	.215	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.280	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.072	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	3	8	3	0	2	6

Player

.304

.267

.273

.281

.265

.215

.280

.223

.072

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	3.0	4	1	1	0	1	57
D. DoddRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
H. WaldrepSP	2.0	2	0	0	4	3	55
D. LeeRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	13
D. FuentesRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	7	1	1	4	5	148

Player

3.0

1.0

2.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.321	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. EldridgeDH	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SchmittLF	.290	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.236	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. LeeRF	.327	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.229	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. Chapman3B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. CavanaughC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
V. BericotoRF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. GilbertCF	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	7	1	0	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. McDonaldSP	5.1	7	3	3	1	3	90
M. GageRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
S. HentgesRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	11
A. HouserSP	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	35
Team	9.0	8	3	3	2	6	148

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SF vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.