MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

HOU

34-41

PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDT

DET

30-43

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Spencer Arrighetti

SP · #41

7-2

W-L

2.57

ERA

1.22

WHIP

63.0

Last 3 starts

@KCL(7-2)6.0 IP4 ER7 K

@LAA-6.0 IP3 ER7 K

vsPIT-4.0 IP4 ER3 K

Home starter

Justin Verlander

SP · #35

0-1

W-L

12.27

ERA

2.18

WHIP

3.2

Last 1 starts

@ARIL(0-1)3.2 IP5 ER1 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Casey MizeDET
5.4± 2.6low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.2high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

DET

.728

OPS

◀

.717

.709

.318

OBP

.319

.316

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.91

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.90

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league