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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PHI
PHI

PHI

27-27

3
0
SD

SD

31-22

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,293 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

46.7%

open 46.8% · -0.1

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL50.8%41.9%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 50.5%May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 3 · SD 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI1000002003
SD0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+49.5pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +49.5pp · implied 0.0%

SD

no live price

BookPHISDBest edge
DraftKings—★+129+49.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasPHI -118

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 3–0.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI27-27
3
0
SD31-22
PHI27-27·SD31-22
PHI

PHI

27-27

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-33221110
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-33000010
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44112101
SPRINT28.175
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-22000010
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000002
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-33000001
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-33000001
Team3-2828333247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.0400260
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000020
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000110
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0100010
Team9.05003100
SD

SD

31-22

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-22020020
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT26.530
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT27.148
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000002
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000003
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000000
T. FranceT. France★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT24.74
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44000002
R. DuranR. Duran★C
0-22000001
Team5-31310500310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CanningG. Canning★SP
6.2333352
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
0.1000010
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
2.0000110
Team9.0333472

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    104 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      31%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.8 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Keller
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Duran
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      65%·97.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·100.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.4 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      43%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.2 mph·50% whiff

SD

  • G. Canning
    97 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      34%·87.1 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      1%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Estrada
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • FS
      75%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

5

3

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

May 25PHIPHI3@SDSD0today
May 27PHIPHI4@SDSD3
May 27PHIPHI3@SDSD0

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

May 25PHIPHI3@SDSD0today
May 27PHIPHI4@SDSD3
May 27PHIPHI3@SDSD0
Jun 2SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 3SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 4SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-11854%
SDSD-10250%

↘3· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

G. Canning

G. Canning

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat SD 3-0. Marsh's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 59% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (374 feet).

PHITop 4th Inning · 1-0
+19pp→ 67% WP

Schwarber · walked.

PHITop 7th Inning · 3-0
+22pp→ 88% WP

Marsh · homered to right (368 feet), Schwarber scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI1000002003
SD0000000000

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · SD won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Marsh 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
SD

Play-by-play · 531 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 3·SD 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  3. B9

    Laureano struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  8. B9

    France to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  9. B9

    France to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  12. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  13. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  14. B9

    France singled to center.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    +0.7pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  18. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Ty France

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  19. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  20. B9

    Castellanos lined out to left.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    −1pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  27. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  28. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

  29. B9

    Merrill flied out to left.

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

    −2pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·SD 0

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SD

Home

3

Runs

0

3

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

9

TB

5

2

HR

0

4

BB

3

7

K

10

5

LOB

24

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7·PHI -118/SD -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 98
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 97
    50
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    174
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    224
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    51
    22(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    141
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    6.0± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Bryson StottPHI
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.7%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.