Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — May 25, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

27-27

31-22

Petco Park · San Diego, California

41,293 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

46.7%

open 46.8% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.3pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +5.3pp · implied 48.3%

Book	PHI	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	-118	-102★	+5.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.1± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.706

OPS

◀

.720

.696

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.312

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

4.15

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 3 · SD 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Philadelphia PhilliesSan Diego Padres

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.233	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
B. Harper1B	.269	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.210	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.318	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
B. Stott2B	.236	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. GarciaRF	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.082	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	3	3	3	2	4	7

Player

.221

.233

.269

.210

.318

.236

.205

.235

.082

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	6.0	4	0	0	2	6	104
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
B. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	0	0	3	10	157

Player

J. LuzardoSP

6.0

104

O. KerkeringRP

1.0

B. KellerRP

1.0

J. DuranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.255	2	0	2	0	0	2	0
M. AndujarDH	.281	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
X. BogaertsSS	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.170	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.198	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. CastellanosRF	.183	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.289	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
R. LaureanoLF	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. DuranC	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	0	5	0	0	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CanningSP	6.2	3	3	3	3	5	97
J. EstradaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
Y. MatsuiRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	25
Team	9.0	3	3	3	4	7	126

Team

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.