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FINAL+1PIT
CHC

CHC

29-25

1
2
PIT

PIT

28-26

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
22,174 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

47.4%

open 48.9% · -1.5

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL52.9%43.4%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 48.0%May 24, 4 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CHC 1 · PIT 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000100001
PIT001000102

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CHC

no live price

PIT

no live price

BookCHCPITBest edge
DraftKings-127-103+0.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 97
    124
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 96
    121
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    172
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 94
    24
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    220
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasCHC -123

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Chicago Cubs, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Moises Ballesteros

Moises Ballesteros

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Henry Davis

Henry Davis

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC29-25
1
2
PIT28-26
CHC29-25·PIT28-26
CHC

CHC

29-25

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000000
SPRINT29.294
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33000011
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.818
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-44000001
P. RamirezP. Ramirez★2B
1-33010000
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-22020010
SPRINT24.53
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-22000011
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner2B
0-11000000
S. SuzukiS. SuzukiRF
0-11000001
C. KellyC. KellyC
0-11000000
Team6-3232161137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BrownB. Brown★RP
6.0411270
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.0211001
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0200020
Team8.0822291
PIT

PIT

28-26

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-33120010
SPRINT24.85
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44021001
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000001
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.483
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000003
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33000011
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
0-33000001
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-33111101
SPRINT27.765
Team8-3232282129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
5.0511321
W. DotelW. DotelRP
3.0100040
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000010
Team9.0611371

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • B. Brown
    83 pitches·33% CSW
    • KC
      42%·87.4 mph·53% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      13%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Thornton
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      33%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      24%·80.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.4 mph·50% whiff

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    86 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.3 mph·9% whiff
    • FS
      24%·85.8 mph·57% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      8%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Dotel
    41 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.7 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.4 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      10%·91.4 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Soto
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      43%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

1

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2today
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2

Season series

PIT leads series 3-1

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2today
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-12355%
PITPIT+10250%

↗207· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
H. Davis

H. Davis

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CHC 2-1. Davis's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 71% WP

Lowe · doubled to left, Horwitz scored.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 45% WP

Busch · homered to center (409 feet).

PITBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+24pp→ 76% WP

Davis · homered to left (413 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000100001
PIT00100010—2

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · PIT won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Busch 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Davis 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  2. T9

    Kelly grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  7. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  8. T9

    Kelly hit for Amaya

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  9. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  10. T9

    Seiya Suzuki challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Seiya Suzuki called out on strikes.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  17. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  18. T9

    Suzuki hit for Ballesteros

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  19. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  20. T9

    Hoerner grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

    +5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  25. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  26. T9

    Soto relieved Dotel

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  27. T9

    Hoerner hit for Ramirez

    ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 1·PIT 2

  30. B8

    · ·

    CHC 1·PIT 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

9

TB

12

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

7

K

9

9

LOB

15

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC -123/PIT +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

47.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    50.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.