• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+9HOU
HOU

HOU

24-31

9
0
TEX

TEX

24-29

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
36,180 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TEX no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.3% · -1.2

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%50.2%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 51.2%May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 9 · TEX 0 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU1001205009
TEX0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.1pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

HOU

no live price

TEX

★ best
+113DraftKings

edge +7.1pp · implied 44.1%

BookHOUTEXBest edge
DraftKings-147+113★+7.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 98
    281
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 97
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 97
    167
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 97
    95
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    288
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 96
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-1/VegasTEX -120

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 9–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Braden Shewmake

Braden Shewmake

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

0.500OPS

2-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU24-31
9
0
TEX24-29
HOU24-31·TEX24-29
HOU

HOU

24-31

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-22211000
SPRINT28.483
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000000
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-33112110
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44113111
SPRINT25.920
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-55100001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44110001
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
0-22100012
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
2-55122002
SPRINT2744
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-44121000
SPRINT22.90
Z. ColeZ. ColeLF
0-11000000
B. ShewmakeB. ShewmakeSS
1-11010000
B. MatthewsB. MatthewsCF
1-22010000
Team10-37379109237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. ImaiT. Imai★SP
6.0000420
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000110
A. SantaA. SantaRP
2.0000010
Team9.0000540
TEX

TEX

24-29

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-33000010
SPRINT25.716
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-33000011
SPRINT2872
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-22000021
SPRINT28.278
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-22000011
SPRINT28.891
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-22000000
SPRINT28.175
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
0-33000000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-33000000
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-33000000
J. BurgerJ. Burger1B
0-11000000
Team0-2525000054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RockerK. Rocker★SP
5.0444251
P. GrayP. GrayRP
2.0553021
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0100100
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
1.0000000
SPRINT28.278
Team9.01097372

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • T. Imai
    97 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.9 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      46%·86.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Santa
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      54%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Okert
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      60%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·90.9 mph·100% whiff

TEX

  • K. Rocker
    85 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      46%·83.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      40%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Gray
    37 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.8 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      38%·83.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      57%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Haggerty
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      100%·34.6 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

0

9

Runs

0

0

Errors

2

Current series

HOU wins series 3-1

May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0today
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1

Season series

HOU leads series 3-1

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0
May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0today
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 12HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 2TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-10150%
TEXTEX-12055%

↘5· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
B. Shewmake

B. Shewmake

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Imai

T. Imai

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 BB

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

0-for-2 · 0.500 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 9-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 41% WP

Nimmo · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Osuna out at second, Pederson to third.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 62% WP

Alvarez · homered to center (415 feet).

HOUBottom 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 64% WP

Duran · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Nimmo out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU1001205009
TEX0000000000

Period scoring

HOU won 4 · TEX won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Alvarez 1

2
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

5
0

Inn 7

Walker 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
TEX

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  3. B9

    Brandon Nimmo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Brandon Nimmo called out on strikes.

    · ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  8. B9

    Alimber Santa pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  9. B9

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  10. B9

    Osuna grounded out to third.

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  13. B9

    Alimber Santa pitches to Alejandro Osuna

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  14. B9

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  15. B9

    Pederson lined out to second.

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  21. B9

    Alimber Santa pitches to Joc Pederson

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  24. T9

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  25. T9

    Allen grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, Matthews out at second.

    · ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  28. T9

    Sam Haggerty pitches to Nick Allen

    · ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  29. T9

    ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

  30. T9

    Matthews grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Smith out at second.

    · ·

    HOU 9·TEX 0

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

9

Runs

0

10

Hits

0

0

Errors

2

17

TB

0

2

HR

0

3

BB

5

7

K

4

23

LOB

8

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 8·HOU -101/TEX -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    52.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.