• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+8WSH
WSH

WSH

28-27

10
2
CLE

CLE

32-24

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
25,494 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

61.5%

open 61.6% · -0.1

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL65.6%57.5%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 61.8%May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 10 · CLE 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH33101200010
CLE0101000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 11, 26sim 97
    269
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    206
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    294
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    266
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 94
    224
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    228
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -169

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Petey Halpin

Petey Halpin

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH28-27
10
2
CLE32-24
WSH28-27·CLE32-24
WSH

WSH

28-27

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
4-55241101
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
3-55234101
SPRINT26.735
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-55223201
SPRINT26.838
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44111102
SPRINT28.483
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
2-55020001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44100011
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
2-44221101
SPRINT29.496
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-44000000
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44010002
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
0-11000001
Team15-41411015106111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. PoulinP. Poulin★RP
2.0211101
Z. LittellZ. LittellSP
7.0511270
Team9.0722371
CLE

CLE

32-24

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-33000001
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-44111103
SPRINT24.96
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22100021
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44011000
SPRINT27.765
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000010
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33010000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010000
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000001
P. HalpinP. HalpinCF
1-11010000
Team7-3131272137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
3.0877035
M. FestaM. FestaRP
2.0211011
L. AllenL. AllenRP
4.0520170
Team9.0151081116

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    106 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      34%·92.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.1 mph·18% whiff
    • FS
      18%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      45%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·79.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • L. Allen
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      34%·90.2 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      4%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Bibee
    61 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.7 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      25%·85.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      23%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Festa
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      28%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

7

10

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 25WSHWSH10@CLECLE2today
May 26WSHWSH6@CLECLE3
May 27WSHWSH2@CLECLE3

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

May 25WSHWSH10@CLECLE2today
May 26WSHWSH6@CLECLE3
May 27WSHWSH2@CLECLE3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13942%
CLECLE-16963%

↗1· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Top relieverQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
P. Halpin

P. Halpin

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Allen

L. Allen

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat CLE 10-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+12pp→ 75% WP

Mead · homered to left center (401 feet), García Jr. scored.

WSHTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 84% WP

Young · homered to left center (389 feet).

WSHTop 2nd Inning · 6-0
+9pp→ 92% WP

Garc · ía Jr. homered to right (352 feet), Wood scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH33101200010
CLE0101000002

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

10

Runs

2

15

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

35

TB

12

6

HR

1

1

BB

3

11

K

7

15

LOB

8

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +139/CLE -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

CLE vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

WSH won 5 · CLE won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Mead 2

3
1

Inn 2

Garc 2

Hoskins 1

1
0

Inn 3

Abrams 1

0
1

Inn 4

Mart 1

1
0

Inn 5

Mead 1

2
0

Inn 6

Garc 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
CLE

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  3. B9

    Kwan grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  6. B9

    Zack Littell pitches to Steven Kwan

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  7. B9

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  8. B9

    Martínez popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  16. B9

    Zack Littell pitches to Angel Martinez

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  17. B9

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  18. B9

    Manzardo grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  22. B9

    Zack Littell pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  25. T9

    · ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  26. T9

    Lile flied out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  28. T9

    Logan Allen pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  29. T9

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

  30. T9

    Crews doubled to center.

    ·

    WSH 10·CLE 2

Player projections

CLE vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    60.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483