Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at ATH?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Seattle Mariners vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — May 25, 2026

FINAL+7SEA

SEA

26-29

ATH

27-27

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

11,194 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

48.3%

open 47.4% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+102

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at ATH?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

SEA

no live price

ATH

no live price

Book	SEA	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-112	+1.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.6± 1.5high
Henry BolteATH
0.4± 1.0high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

ATH

.687

OPS

.720

▶

.720

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.320

3.98

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.35

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.7

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 9 · ATH 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	9
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Seattle MarinersAthletics

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.199	5	1	1	1	1	0	3
J. RodriguezCF	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.250	5	2	2	1	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.299	5	2	3	3	1	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.270	5	1	2	2	1	0	2
C. Young2B	.241	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.237	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
J. PeredaC	.208	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. EmersonSS	.250	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. RoblesRF	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	9	12	9	4	1	10

Player

.199

.260

.250

.299

.270

.241

.237

.208

.250

.188

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	4.0	2	0	0	2	6	68
B. MillerSP	5.0	5	2	2	0	4	83
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	10	151

Player

L. CastilloSP

4.0

B. MillerSP

5.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CortesRF	.341	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Kurtz1B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. LangeliersC	.303	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. RookerDH	.193	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. SoderstromLF	.201	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.282	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. HernaizSS	.272	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	1	1	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CivaleSP	4.0	9	7	7	1	2	73
J. PerkinsRP	4.2	3	2	2	0	7	63
J. KuhnelRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
Team	9.0	12	9	9	1	10	140

Team

SEA

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.