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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SEA
SEA

SEA

26-29

9
2
ATH

ATH

27-27

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
11,194 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

48.3%

open 47.4% · +0.9

+2.0-0.5ATH SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 9.5TOTAL52.6%43.4%ATH NO-VIG %MODEL 47.4%May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 9 · ATH 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0061000029
ATH0000000112

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+52.6pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +52.6pp · implied 0.0%

ATH

no live price

BookSEAATHBest edge
DraftKings—★+1540+52.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0/VegasATH -112

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Athletics and beat them, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Darell Hernaiz

Darell Hernaiz

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA26-29
9
2
ATH27-27
SEA26-29·ATH27-27
SEA

SEA

26-29

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-55111103
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44010001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-55221000
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
3-55233101
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
2-55122102
SPRINT28.175
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44110001
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44112102
SPRINT25.920
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-44010000
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
0-33100010
V. RoblesV. RoblesRF
0-11000000
Team12-404091294110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
4.0200260
B. MillerB. MillerSP
5.0522041
Team9.07222101
ATH

ATH

27-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
0-33000011
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-33000011
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44111101
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000003
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.735
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
1-44010001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.920
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-44010003
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-33020000
SPRINT27.969
Team7-33332711210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
4.0977123
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
4.2322071
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
0.1000010
Team9.012991104

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

7

9

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

May 26SEASEA9@ATHATH2today
May 27SEASEA4@ATHATH1
May 27SEASEA9@ATHATH1

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 21ATHATH6@SEASEA4
Apr 22ATHATH5@SEASEA2
Apr 22ATHATH4@SEASEA5
May 26SEASEA9@ATHATH2today
May 27SEASEA4@ATHATH1
May 27SEASEA9@ATHATH1
Sep 4ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 5ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 6ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 6ATHATH@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 12SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 13SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 13SEASEA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6h

Moneyline

SEASEA-10852%
ATHATH-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 3rd Inning

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
D. Hernaiz

D. Hernaiz

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Perkins

J. Perkins

RP

Top reliever

4.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SEA beat ATH 9-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 67% WP

Cortes · walked.

SEATop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 52% WP

Rodr · íguez singled to center, Emerson to third.

SEATop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+17pp→ 82% WP

Raley · homered to right center (389 feet), Arozarena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0061000029
ATH0000000112

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · ATH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

6
0

Inn 3

Raley 2

1
0

Inn 4

Crawford 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Langeliers 1

2
1

Inn 9

Arozarena 2

McNeil 1

SEA
ATH

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  3. B9

    Gelof struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  8. B9

    Bryce Miller pitches to Zack Gelof

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  10. B9

    McNeil grounded into double play, to first, Soderstrom scored, Bolte out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  16. B9

    Bryce Miller pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  18. B9

    Bolte reached on infield single to third, Soderstrom to third.

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  25. B9

    Bryce Miller pitches to Henry Bolte

    · ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  26. B9

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  27. B9

    Soderstrom doubled to left.

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

  30. B9

    Bryce Miller pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    ·

    SEA 9·ATH 1

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

9

Runs

2

12

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

26

TB

12

4

HR

1

1

BB

2

10

K

10

8

LOB

16

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 10.5·SEA -108/ATH -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+102

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Player projections

ATH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.1%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 99
    96
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 97
    129
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175