Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at SF?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — May 25, 2026

FINAL+4ARI

ARI

29-24

22-32

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

38,380 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
48.3%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.7%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at SF?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.7pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+108DraftKings

edge +6.7pp · implied 45.9%

no live price

Book	ARI	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	+108★	-131	+6.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high
Logan WebbSF
5.0± 2.0high
Kohl DrakeARI
4.0± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.5± 3.4low
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.3± 2.0low
James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.723

.314

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.37

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · SF 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	6
SF	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.275	5	1	4	3	0	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.304	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.221	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
N. Arenado3B	.268	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.187	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.321	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MorenoC	.248	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
J. FernandezDH	.264	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.429	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
I. Vargas1B	.304	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.179	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	11	6	1	4	9

Player

.275

.304

.221

.268

.187

.321

.248

.264

.429

.304

.179

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	7.0	4	2	2	2	4	96
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	5	122

Player

M. KellySP

7.0

J. LoaisigaRP

1.0

B. GarciaRP

1.0

Team

9.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. AdamesSS	.235	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. Arraez2B	.318	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.295	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Devers1B	.246	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. Chapman3B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.327	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. EldridgeDH	.171	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. BaderCF	.175	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.228	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	0	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RouppSP	5.0	7	4	2	1	7	93
J. PegueroRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	0	11
S. HentgesRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	13
J. BrubakerRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	1	35
Team	9.0	11	6	4	4	9	152

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.