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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4ARI
ARI

ARI

29-24

6
2
SF

SF

22-32

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,380 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%SF NO-VIG %May 24, 4 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · SF 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0010320006
SF0002000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.6pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best
+108DraftKings

edge +14.6pp · implied 45.9%

SF

no live price

BookARISFBest edge
DraftKings+108★-131+14.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasSF -131

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 6–2.

ARI +1.5 cashed (SF lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI29-24
6
2
SF22-32
ARI29-24·SF22-32
ARI

ARI

29-24

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
4-55143001
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-55020000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-55111002
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-44000011
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-22011010
SPRINT26.326
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-55000002
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-33211111
SPRINT26.428
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-44110001
T. TroyT. Troy★OF
1-33110010
I. VargasI. Vargas1B
0-22000001
Team11-38386116149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
7.0422240
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0100000
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0000010
Team9.0522250
SF

SF

22-32

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33012000
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000000
D. SusacD. Susac★C
0-44000002
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
0-22000011
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33000001
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.428
Team5-3030252025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
5.0742171
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
0.1222100
S. HentgesS. HentgesRP
0.2100110
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
3.0100110
Team9.01164491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Kelly
    96 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      29%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.2 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      43%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      14%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.9 mph·— whiff

SF

  • L. Roupp
    93 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      25%·76.9 mph·58% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      1%·92.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    35 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      40%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Hentges
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      38%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·92.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Peguero
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·100.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·99.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·92.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2today
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2

Season series

ARI leads series 4-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6
May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2today
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2
Jun 30SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 1SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 2SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 28ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 29ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+10848%
SFSF-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SF 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 58% WP

Moreno · homered to center (406 feet).

SFBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+17pp→ 75% WP

Devers · doubled to right, Adames and Arraez scored.

ARITop 5th Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 56% WP

Marte · doubled to left, Troy scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0010320006
SF0002000002

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · SF won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Moreno 1

0
2

Inn 4

Devers 2

3
0

Inn 5

Marte 1

2
0

Inn 6

Marte 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
SF

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·SF 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  3. B9

    Susac struck out looking.

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  8. B9

    Brandyn Garcia pitches to Daniel Susac

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  9. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  10. B9

    Chapman grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Devers out at second.

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  17. B9

    Brandyn Garcia pitches to Matt Chapman

    · ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  18. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  19. B9

    Devers hit by pitch.

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

    +2pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  22. B9

    Brandyn Garcia pitches to Rafael Devers

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  23. B9

    B. Garcia relieved Loaisiga

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·SF 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·SF 2

  26. T9

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  27. T9

    Waldschmidt lined out to center.

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·SF 2

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

16

TB

9

1

HR

0

4

BB

2

9

K

5

21

LOB

12

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 8·ARI +108/SF -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 96
    227
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 96
    245
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    25
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    297
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 96
    242
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    293
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SF vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.3± 1.7low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.