• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6MIA
MIA

MIA

26-29

8
2
TOR

TOR

25-29

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,177 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

+0.5-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL64.3%56.0%TOR NO-VIG %May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 8 · TOR 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1000130308
TOR0000110002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIA

no live price

TOR

no live price

BookMIATORBest edge
DraftKings-109-119+0.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -149

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA26-29
8
2
TOR25-29
MIA26-29·TOR25-29
MIA

MIA

26-29

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44210010
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-33101010
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-44122002
SPRINT2622
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33101011
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-44222000
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
2-44022001
SPRINT28.586
J. MackJ. Mack★C
1-44010001
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
0-44000002
Team9-3535898038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
5.0811030
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.1111031
A. NardiA. NardiRP
0.2000010
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0100000
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.0000110
Team9.01022181
TOR

TOR

25-29

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-55000001
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
3-44030001
SPRINT27.148
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
1-55011001
SPRINT2622
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-33010001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44121100
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000001
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-44010001
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT26.941
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team10-37372102118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
6.2555260
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2233100
A. MackoA. MackoRP
0.1200010
T. AndrewsT. AndrewsRP
1.0000000
Team9.0988380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • J. Junk
    93 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·80.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·80.6 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      40%·91.2 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      15%·85.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Gibson
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      33%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·80.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      29%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.1 mph·100% whiff

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    98 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      35%·83.9 mph·65% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.8 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      88%·83.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      12%·73.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Andrews
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      40%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Macko
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 25MIAMIA8@TORTOR2today
May 26MIAMIA1@TORTOR8
May 27MIAMIA1@TORTOR2

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

May 25MIAMIA8@TORTOR2today
May 26MIAMIA1@TORTOR8
May 27MIAMIA1@TORTOR2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+12445%
TORTOR-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
K. Stowers

K. Stowers

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 8 H

TORTOR
E. Clement

E. Clement

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat TOR 8-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 5th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 75% WP

Caissie · doubled to center, Sanoja scored.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 53% WP

Pinango · singled to center, Sosa scored, Lukes to third.

MIATop 6th Inning · 5-1
+14pp→ 92% WP

Sanoja · doubled to left, Marsee scored and Stowers scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1000130308
TOR0000110002

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · TOR won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Lopez 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Caissie 1

Pinango 1

3
1

Inn 6

Sanoja 2

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Stowers 1

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
TOR

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  3. B9

    Pinango grounded out to second.

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  5. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to Yohendrick Pinango

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  6. B9

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  7. B9

    Lukes struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  13. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to Nathan Lukes

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  15. B9

    Springer grounded out to shortstop, Sosa to second.

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  21. B9

    Cade Gibson pitches to George Springer

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  22. B9

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  23. B9

    Sosa walked.

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 8·TOR 2

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

8

Runs

2

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

15

TB

13

0

HR

1

3

BB

1

8

K

8

9

LOB

24

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIA +124/TOR -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 99
    281
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 97
    167
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 97
    95
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs