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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CIN
CIN

CIN

28-25

7
2
NYM

NYM

22-32

Citi Field · Queens, New York
36,734 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

+0.5-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%55.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 7 · NYM 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0214000007
NYM0000011002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.2pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

NYM

★ best
+197DraftKings

edge +7.2pp · implied 31.6%

BookCINNYMBest edge
DraftKings-267+197★+7.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -132

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–2.

CIN +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Marcus Semien

Marcus Semien

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN28-25
7
2
NYM22-32
CIN28-25·NYM22-32
CIN

CIN

28-25

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
0-44000001
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-55000004
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-44111112
SPRINT27.457
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33100002
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-33220010
SPRINT25.818
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-22110020
SPRINT25.411
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44113001
SPRINT28.483
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44112103
SPRINT26.735
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000002
Team6-33337662415
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. LodoloN. Lodolo★SP
6.0611071
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.2111000
T. AntoneT. AntoneRP
0.1200000
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0000030
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000020
Team9.09220121
NYM

NYM

22-32

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
3-44030001
SPRINT25.716
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-44121100
SPRINT28.175
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
1-44010001
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-22000001
N. MorabitoN. Morabito★LF
0-44000003
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-44000002
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
0-11000001
Team9-34342921012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
3.1577262
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
1.2100130
J. PintaroJ. PintaroRP
2.2000130
T. MyersT. MyersRP
1.1000030
Team9.06774152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • N. Lodolo
    98 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      34%·94.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      27%·82.3 mph·47% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.5 mph·21% whiff
  • T. Antone
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      44%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Burke
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      46%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      62%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      38%·98.0 mph·25% whiff
  • S. Moll
    12 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      58%·91.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.6 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    78 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·94.7 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      29%·85.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Pintaro
    40 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      63%·90.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Warren
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      58%·84.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Myers
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      30%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      10%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

7

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

May 25CINCIN7@NYMNYM2today
May 26CINCIN7@NYMNYM2
May 27CINCIN2@NYMNYM4

Season series

CIN leads series 1-0

May 25CINCIN7@NYMNYM2today
May 26CINCIN7@NYMNYM2
May 27CINCIN2@NYMNYM4
Jun 15NYMNYM@CINCINupcoming
Jun 16NYMNYM@CINCINupcoming
Jun 17NYMNYM@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+10948%
NYMNYM-13257%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

CINCIN
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 6 H

NYMNYM
M. Semien

M. Semien

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 7 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat NYM 7-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 54% WP

Lowe · walked, Suárez to second, Stewart to third.

CINTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 73% WP

Bleday · homered to right center (409 feet).

CINTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 86% WP

Lowe · doubled to right, Suárez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0214000007
NYM0000011002

Period scoring

CIN won 3 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Steer 1

1
0

Inn 3

Bleday 1

4
0

Inn 4

Steer 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Semien 1

0
1

Inn 7

Benge 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
NYM

Play-by-play · 609 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Benge grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  9. B9

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Carson Benge

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  10. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  11. B9

    Torrens struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  17. B9

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Luis Torrens

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  18. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  19. B9

    Tyler Stephenson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Brett Baty called out on strikes.

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  23. B9

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  24. B9

    Ashcraft relieved Moll

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  27. T9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  28. T9

    Bleday struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

2

6

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

14

TB

13

2

HR

1

4

BB

0

15

K

12

13

LOB

13

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN +109/NYM -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.16

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+134

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYM vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.8%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 100
    177
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    172
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 94
    58
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    152
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    147
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    158
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs