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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
TB

TB

34-17

7
9
BAL

BAL

24-30

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
22,388 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BAL no-vig %

44.9%

open 45.8% · -0.9

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL49.9%40.9%BAL NO-VIG %May 24, 3 PMMay 25, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 7 · BAL 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910111213R
TB00000101002127
BAL00000020002149

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.7pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

TB

★ best
-146DraftKings

edge +5.7pp · implied 55.7%

BAL

no live price

BookTBBALBest edge
DraftKings-146★+112+5.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 96
    1015
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 95
    106
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    302
    1(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 95
    1012
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 93
    1912
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.90

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, May 25·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0/VegasTB -114

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Tampa Bay Rays, 9–7.

BAL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

1B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.267OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/13
TB34-17
7
9
BAL24-30
TB34-17·BAL24-30
TB

TB

34-17

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-66130001
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-66010002
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-44122111
SPRINT25.29
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44010000
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
2-66121001
SPRINT26.838
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44111020
SPRINT27.662
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
1-55112101
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-22000000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-66010003
O. DunnO. Dunn3B
0-11200011
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-33001000
Team12-474771272410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. McClanahanS. McClanahan★SP
5.1300230
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
0.2121200
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
2.0200020
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
2.0220220
J. ScholtensJ. ScholtensRP
1.1453011
Team12.11294691
BAL

BAL

24-30

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-55010010
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-55001001
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-55100011
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
3-55131011
SPRINT25.29
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-22000001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44221011
SPRINT2993
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
3-55231010
SPRINT28.175
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44001013
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-22010000
S. BasalloS. BasalloC
0-11000000
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
1-33111000
SPRINT26.530
C. CowserC. CowserCF
1-44212101
SPRINT28.175
Team12-45459128169
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
6.0511231
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.2100010
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1000010
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0211000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
2.0100210
T. WellsT. WellsRP
2.0131031
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.0221010
Team13.012744102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. McClanahan
    84 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.2 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      33%·84.6 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      3%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Scholtens
    30 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      27%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      23%·83.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      67%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    92 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      29%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·84.2 mph·45% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      15%·87.0 mph·11% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Wells
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      38%·90.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·78.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      44%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      42%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      82%·96.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      83%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      17%·91.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

12

7

Runs

9

4

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9today
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11

Season series

TB leads series 3-1

May 18BALBAL6@TBTB16
May 19BALBAL1@TBTB4
May 20BALBAL3@TBTB5
May 25TBTB7@BALBAL9today
May 26TBTB1@BALBAL6
May 27TBTB2@BALBAL11
Aug 14BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 15BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 16BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 17BALBAL@TBTBupcoming
Aug 21TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 22TBTB@BALBALupcoming
Aug 23TBTB@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-11453%
BALBAL-10551%

↗5· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 45pp · Top 11th Inning

TBTB
J. Aranda

J. Aranda

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.267 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TB 9-7. Mesa Jr.'s play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Win probability

BAL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12I13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 11th Inning · 4-2
+45pp→ 82% WP

Mesa Jr. · homered to right center (421 feet), Mullins scored.

BALBottom 11th Inning · 4-4
+35pp→ 81% WP

Jackson · singled to left, Alonso scored, Jackson to second.

TBTop 13th Inning · 5-5
+31pp→ 69% WP

Palacios · reached on bunt single to third, Dunn to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910111213R
TB00000101002127
BAL00000020002149

Period scoring

TB won 2 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Aranda 1

0
2

Inn 7

Alexander 1

1
0

Inn 8

Palacios 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

2
2

Inn 11

Jr. 2

Alonso 1

1
1

Inn 12

Aranda 1

Orioles 1

2
4

Inn 13

Mullins 1

Cowser 2

TB
BAL

Play-by-play · 821 plays

period
event
player
  1. B13

    ·

    TB 7·BAL 9

  2. B13

    Cowser homered to right center (425 feet), Alexander scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 9

    +31pp

  3. B13

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 9

  4. B13

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

  5. B13

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

  6. B13

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

  7. B13

    Jesse Scholtens pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 9

  8. B13

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

  9. B13

    Holliday hit sacrifice fly to center, Taveras scored, Alexander to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

    +6pp

  10. B13

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

  11. B13

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  12. B13

    Jesse Scholtens pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 7

  13. B13

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  14. B13

    Alexander singled to center, Taveras to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

    +20pp

  15. B13

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  16. B13

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  17. B13

    Jesse Scholtens pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  18. B13

    ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  19. B13

    Taveras doubled to right, Jackson scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

    +24pp

  20. B13

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  21. B13

    Jesse Scholtens pitches to Leody Taveras

    ·

    TB 7·BAL 6

  22. B13

    Bottom of the 13th inning

    TB 7·BAL 5

  23. M13

    Middle of the 13th inning

    TB 7·BAL 5

  24. T13

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

  25. T13

    Taylor Walls challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Taylor Walls called out on strikes.

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

    +3pp

  26. T13

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

  27. T13

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

  28. T13

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

  29. T13

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Taylor Walls

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

  30. T13

    · ·

    TB 7·BAL 5

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

7

Runs

9

12

Hits

12

4

Errors

1

21

TB

16

2

HR

1

4

BB

6

10

K

9

19

LOB

24

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·TB -114/BAL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    39.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.