Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at LAD?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — May 25, 2026

FINAL+2LAD

COL

20-35

LAD

34-20

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

48,778 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

73.1%

open 70.5% · +2.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
79.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
80.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
79.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.39

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-280

Close price

-339

Open no-vig

70.5%

Close no-vig

73.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at LAD?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.9pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

COL

no live price

LAD

★ best

-326DraftKings

edge +4.9pp · implied 73.2%

Book	COL	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+257	-326★	+4.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

LAD

.747

OPS

.720

▶

.769

.324

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.86

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.07

5.52

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.71

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

COL 3 · LAD 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +30pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	3
LAD	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. Rumfield1B	.284	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.323	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. Castro2B	.255	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.217	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. Karros3B	.207	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.206	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. FulfordDH	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	7	3	1	1	12

Player

.268

.241

.284

.250

.323

.255

.217

.150

.207

.206

.154

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GordonRP	5.0	6	1	1	1	3	80
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	2	2	2	0	25
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	1	2	2	0	0	9
J. HillRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	5
W. HerreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	8.0	8	5	5	3	3	128

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.273	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. BettsSS	.165	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.260	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.286	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HernándezLF	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. SmithC	.242	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
H. KimSS	.257	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
E. Hernández1B	1.000	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Rojas2B	.256	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	8	5	0	3	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. SheehanSP	6.0	5	2	2	1	8	92
K. HurtRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
W. KleinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
A. VesiaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	12
B. TreinenRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	12	134

Team

COL

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

LAD vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers