MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LAD

COL

20-35

LAD

34-20

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 979 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

48,778 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

73.1%

open 70.5% · +2.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

83.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
79.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
81.9%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
80.5%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.39

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-280

Close price

-339

Open no-vig

70.5%

Close no-vig

73.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.1pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

COL

no live price

LAD

★ best

-326DraftKings

edge +9.1pp · implied 73.2%

Book	COL	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+257	-326★	+9.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.4low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.6± 3.7low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.0± 2.3low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.4± 1.2high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Andy PagesLAD
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Andy PagesLAD
2.4± 2.7high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Freddie FreemanLAD
0.9± 0.7high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.7± 1.2high
Alex CallLAD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.0± 3.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 3.1low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

COL 3 · LAD 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +30pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	3
LAD	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. McCarthy★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.1
H. Goodman★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	5.4
T. Rumfield★1B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.6
T. Freeman★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.5
SPRINT27.148
T. Johnston★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	9.4
SPRINT26.326
W. Castro★2B	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1	3.7
SPRINT27.969
E. Tovar★SS	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	0	0	13.6
SPRINT27.867
S. Thompson★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.3
K. Karros★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	3.4
SPRINT27.251
E. Julien2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.2
B. FulfordC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.2
Team	7-32	32	3	7	3	1	1	12	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J. McCarthy★CF

0-4

4.1

H. Goodman★C

0-4

5.4

T. Rumfield★1B

0-0

0.6

T. Freeman★RF

1-4

1.5

T. Johnston★RF

1-4

9.4

W. Castro★2B

2-4

3.7

E. Tovar★SS

2-3

13.6

S. Thompson★RF

0-3

6.3

K. Karros★3B

1-3

3.4

E. Julien2B

0-2

2.2

B. FulfordC

0-1

2.2

Team

7-32

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. Gordon★RP	5.0	6	1	1	1	3	0	3.7
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	2	2	2	0	0	5.7
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	1	2	2	0	0	0	37.8
J. HillRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.7
W. HerreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3
Team	8.0	8	5	5	3	3	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

T. Gordon★RP

5.0

3.7

J. MejiaRP

1.0

5.7

B. BernardinoRP

0.2

37.8

J. HillRP

0.1

5.7

W. HerreraRP

1.0

0.3

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
S. Ohtani★DH	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0	11.5
SPRINT2744
M. Betts★SS	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	3.1
F. Freeman★1B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	1.5
SPRINT24.74
A. Pages★CF	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.6
SPRINT28.175
K. Tucker★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	9.5
T. Hernández★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	6.0
W. Smith★C	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	24.1
H. Kim★SS	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	44.0
SPRINT28.381
E. Hernández★1B	2-2	2	0	2	1	0	0	0	1.9

Team	8-30	30	5	8	5	0	3	3	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
E. Sheehan★SP	6.0	5	2	2	1	8	0	17.7
K. HurtRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	15.1
W. KleinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3.2
A. VesiaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2.6
B. TreinenRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.2
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	12	1	—

Team

COL

LAD

—