Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

47-21-6

CBJ

38-25-12

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-1VegasCAR -130

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

3Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Kirill Marchenko

RW · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	19:29
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-1	3	0	2	2	16:25
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	9:38
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	2	0	3	0	0	0	18:23
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:48
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	11:27
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:00
J. MartinookLW · #48	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	15:27
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:01
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	16:41
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	-1	2	0	0	2	15:54
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	16:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:42
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	-1	2	1	2	0	17:39
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:41
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:56
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	20:47
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	25	2	23	.920	59:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	18:46
A. FantilliC · #19	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	18:06
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:16
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:40
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	-2	0	5	5	0	18:58
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	7:48
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:07
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	18:20
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	2	2	0	3	2	2	17:22
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	20:06
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:30
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	7:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	17:55
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	21:21
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:10
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	25:21
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	1	-1	3	1	1	0	27:29
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	32	4	28	.875	58:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

60.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR leads series 2-1

Dec 10

CBJ1@

CAR4

Mar 17

CAR1@

CBJ5

Mar 31

CAR5@

CBJ2today

Apr 2

CBJ1@

CAR5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-13057%

CBJ+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 65 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat CBJ 5-2. N. Ehlers led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	2	0	3	5
CBJ	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · CBJ won 1

CAR

CBJ

Play-by-play · 332 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:59
Cole Sillinger Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:49
Kent Johnson shot blocked by Miles Wood
·
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:48
Miles Wood Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:41
Denton Mateychuk shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:13
Cole Sillinger faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:13
Jordan Martinook Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none
CAR 5·CBJ 2
3rd·19:07
Adam Fantilli shot blocked by Charlie Coyle
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·19:01
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·19:01
Jackson Blake Tripping against Charlie Coyle
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·18:47
Mason Marchment hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·18:30
Mason Marchment hit Andrei Svechnikov
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·18:25
Sean Walker shot blocked by Ivan Provorov
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·18:11
Seth Jarvis Backhand Off Crossbar
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·18:07
Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·17:39
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·17:34
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:50
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:50
Goalie Stopped
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:48
Zach Werenski Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:46
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:46
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:43
Danton Heinen Wrist Shot Short
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:39
Cole Sillinger Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by K'Andre Miller
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:30
Cole Sillinger Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:21
K'Andre Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:18
Takeaway by K'Andre Miller
CAR 4·CBJ 2
3rd·16:12
Giveaway by K'Andre Miller
CAR 4·CBJ 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -130/CBJ +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 5–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sean Monahan · CBJ20:120.8042.9%49.6%20:12 TOI · 0.80 iXG · 42.9% CF · 49.6% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ18:120.7854.5%59.5%18:12 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 54.5% CF · 59.5% xGF
Adam Fantilli · CBJ18:060.4753.3%56.7%18:06 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 53.3% CF · 56.7% xGF
Mark Jankowski · CAR11:240.4351.6%53.9%11:24 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 51.6% CF · 53.9% xGF
William Carrier · CAR9:420.3953.3%57.6%9:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 53.3% CF · 57.6% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR16:480.3347.2%45.4%16:48 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 47.2% CF · 45.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR23–2.920+0.4823–2 · .920 SV% · +0.48 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ28–4.875-0.9128–4 · .875 SV% · -0.91 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesColumbus Blue Jackets

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