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FINAL+2WSH
PHI

PHI

37-25-12

46
WSH

WSH

38-28-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasWSH -125

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–4.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

4Points

0

G

4

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
6
PHI37-25-12WSH38-28-9
PHI

PHI

37-25-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

38-28-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

12

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Feb 4WSHWSH2@PHIPHI4
Feb 26PHIPHI1@WSHWSH3
Mar 11WSHWSH1@PHIPHI4
Mar 31PHIPHI4@WSHWSH6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+10549%
WSHWSH-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PHI 6-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI0224
WSH2226

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · WSH won 1

0
2

1

2
2

2

2
2

3

PHI
WSH

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Justin Sourdif Tripping against Travis Konecny

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Travis Sanheim Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Travis Sanheim shot blocked by Alex Ovechkin

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  6. 3rd·18:56

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  7. 3rd·18:56

    Tom Wilson Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Matt Roy (17)

    · ·

    PHI 4·WSH 6

  8. 3rd·18:29

    Giveaway by Jamie Drysdale

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  9. 3rd·18:18

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  10. 3rd·18:18

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  11. 3rd·18:16

    Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  12. 3rd·18:07

    Rasmus Sandin hit Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  13. 3rd·18:04

    Denver Barkey Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  14. 3rd·17:51

    Jamie Drysdale Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  15. 3rd·17:40

    Owen Tippett Backhand Hit Left Post

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  16. 3rd·16:54

    Giveaway by Noah Cates

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  17. 3rd·16:13

    Connor McMichael faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  18. 3rd·16:13

    TV Timeout

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  19. 3rd·16:13

    Dylan Strome Tripping against Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  20. 3rd·16:03

    Takeaway by Jakob Chychrun

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  21. 3rd·15:54

    Carl Grundstrom shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  22. 3rd·15:19

    Giveaway by Cam York

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  23. 3rd·15:11

    David Kampf faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  24. 3rd·15:11

    Icing

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  25. 3rd·15:03

    Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by David Kampf

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  26. 3rd·15:00

    Noah Cates faceoff won against David Kampf

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  27. 3rd·15:00

    Icing

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  28. 3rd·14:07

    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  29. 3rd·13:28

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    PHI 4·WSH 5

  30. 3rd·13:28

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    PHI 4·WSH 5

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

24

Shots

18

0.0

PCT

66.7

10

PIM

12

32

Faceoffs W

25

11

Blocks

21

18

Giveaways

9

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +105/WSH -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495
  • Ivan MiroshnichenkoWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH93.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR