Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

PHI

37-25-12

WSH

38-28-9

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasWSH -125

PHI · top performer

Travis Sanheim

D · #6

2Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:38
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:19
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	11:02
C. DvorakC · #22	1	1	0	3	1	1	0	20:37
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:22
C. GrundstromRW · #91	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	10:46
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	7:23
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	2	-1	3	3	0	2	22:30
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	16:54
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:09
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	17:17
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	-1	0	1	1	4	17:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	12:59
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:49
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	1	2	0	4	1	0	24:59
T. SanheimD · #6	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	22:59
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:12
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	18:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	17	5	12	.706	57:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:17
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	4	1	0	2	0	0	17:18
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:44
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:29
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:59
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:29
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	2	1	2	1	0	2	18:03
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:21
A. OvechkinLW · #8	2	0	0	3	3	1	0	15:44
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	19:16
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	16:17
T. WilsonRW · #43	2	0	1	3	2	0	0	20:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	1	2	2	2	1	3	0	20:22
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-1	0	1	5	0	21:53
C. HutsonD · #44	0	0	-1	0	1	1	4	10:58
M. RoyD · #3	0	2	1	2	1	1	0	19:33
R. SandinD · #38	0	1	-2	0	2	2	0	21:14
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	1	1	0	5	0	21:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	24	4	20	.833	59:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Feb 4

WSH2@

PHI4

Feb 26

PHI1@

WSH3

Mar 11

WSH1@

PHI4

Mar 31

PHI4@

WSH6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+10549%

WSH-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat PHI 6-4. A. Ovechkin led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	0	2	2	4
WSH	2	2	2	6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · WSH won 1

PHI

WSH

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·20:00
Justin Sourdif Tripping against Travis Konecny
·
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·19:58
Travis Sanheim Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·19:52
Travis Sanheim shot blocked by Alex Ovechkin
·
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·18:56
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·18:56
Tom Wilson Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Matt Roy (17)
· ·
PHI 4·WSH 6
3rd·18:29
Giveaway by Jamie Drysdale
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·18:18
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·18:18
Puck in Netting
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·18:16
Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·18:07
Rasmus Sandin hit Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·18:04
Denver Barkey Tip-In saved by Logan Thompson
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·17:51
Jamie Drysdale Slap Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·17:40
Owen Tippett Backhand Hit Left Post
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:54
Giveaway by Noah Cates
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:13
Connor McMichael faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:13
TV Timeout
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:13
Dylan Strome Tripping against Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·16:03
Takeaway by Jakob Chychrun
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:54
Carl Grundstrom shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Cam York
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:11
David Kampf faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:11
Icing
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:03
Jamie Drysdale shot blocked by David Kampf
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:00
Noah Cates faceoff won against David Kampf
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·15:00
Icing
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·14:07
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:28
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
PHI 4·WSH 5
3rd·13:28
Puck Frozen - Skater
PHI 4·WSH 5

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +105/WSH -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–4.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Porter Martone · PHI17:060.8173.3%76.8%17:06 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 73.3% CF · 76.8% xGF
Alex Ovechkin · WSH15:540.7766.7%64.1%15:54 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 66.7% CF · 64.1% xGF
Christian Dvorak · PHI22:480.4275.0%77.6%22:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 75.0% CF · 77.6% xGF
Carl Grundstrom · PHI10:480.4157.1%46.0%10:48 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 57.1% CF · 46.0% xGF
Denver Barkey · PHI14:480.2957.1%45.8%14:48 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 57.1% CF · 45.8% xGF
Cam York · PHI18:300.2654.8%50.9%18:30 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 54.8% CF · 50.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH20–4.833-1.2320–4 · .833 SV% · -1.23 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI12–5.706-3.0212–5 · .706 SV% · -3.02 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
56.9%
P(WSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.9%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.9%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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