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FINAL+4PIT
DET

DET

39-27-8

15
PIT

PIT

38-21-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesPIT wins series 3-0VegasDET -108

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Detroit Red Wings, 5–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane

RW · #88

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Egor Chinakhov

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
DET39-27-8PIT38-21-16
DET

DET

39-27-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

38-21-16

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

9

Season series

PIT wins series 3-0

Jan 2DETDET3@PITPIT4
Jan 3PITPIT4@DETDET1
Mar 31DETDET1@PITPIT5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-10852%
PITPIT-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat DET 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET0101
PIT3115

Period scoring

DET won 0 · PIT won 2

0
3

1

1
1

2

0
1

3

DET
PIT

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 1·PIT 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 1·PIT 5

  3. 3rd·19:25

    Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Connor Dewar

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  4. 3rd·19:25

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    DET 1·PIT 5

  5. 3rd·19:22

    Moritz Seider shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  6. 3rd·19:00

    Moritz Seider Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  7. 3rd·18:50

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  8. 3rd·18:37

    Giveaway by Patrick Kane

    DET 1·PIT 5

  9. 3rd·18:26

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Anthony Mantha

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  10. 3rd·18:08

    Giveaway by Marco Kasper

    DET 1·PIT 5

  11. 3rd·17:50

    Emmitt Finnie shot blocked by Ben Kindel

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  12. 3rd·17:29

    Marco Kasper hit Samuel Girard

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  13. 3rd·17:11

    Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  14. 3rd·17:04

    Connor Dewar hit Carter Mazur

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  15. 3rd·17:00

    Noel Acciari hit Albert Johansson

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  16. 3rd·16:37

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Connor Dewar

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  17. 3rd·16:37

    Puck in Netting

    DET 1·PIT 5

  18. 3rd·16:35

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Connor Clifton

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  19. 3rd·15:46

    Marco Kasper hit Ben Kindel

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  20. 3rd·15:25

    Takeaway by Kris Letang

    DET 1·PIT 5

  21. 3rd·15:21

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  22. 3rd·15:21

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 1·PIT 5

  23. 3rd·15:19

    Justin Brazeau Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  24. 3rd·15:14

    Takeaway by Ben Kindel

    DET 1·PIT 5

  25. 3rd·15:07

    Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  26. 3rd·14:56

    Justin Brazeau Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  27. 3rd·14:41

    Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  28. 3rd·14:41

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 1·PIT 5

  29. 3rd·14:39

    Anthony Mantha Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 5

  30. 3rd·14:11

    Giveaway by Erik Karlsson

    DET 1·PIT 5

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

23

Shots

32

100.0

PCT

0.0

13

PIM

9

32

Faceoffs W

29

13

Blocks

13

17

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -108/PIT -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR