Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PIT

DET

39-27-8

PIT

38-21-16

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesPIT wins series 3-0VegasDET -108

DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Noel Acciari

C · #55

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	16:33
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	13:48
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	17:34
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	18:26
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:12
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	17:41
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	13:57
D. LarkinC · #71	1	0	-1	2	5	0	2	14:10
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:54
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	12:17
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-3	1	2	1	2	13:54
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	14:47
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-2	2	3	2	2	19:29
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	-2	0	1	5	0	22:09
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-2	2	2	2	0	22:40
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:14
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-3	2	3	1	0	21:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	14	3	11	.786	20:00
C. TalbotG · #39	18	2	16	.889	39:58

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:32
J. BrazeauRW · #16	1	0	2	2	3	1	0	11:43
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	17:05
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	18:10
C. DewarC · #19	0	1	2	2	1	0	5	13:57
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:40
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	14:12
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	17:32
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	0	1	4	1	3	2	17:09
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:05
R. RakellRW · #67	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:02
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	1	3	0	2	1	0	17:10
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:58
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	1	4	1	2	0	22:48
K. LetangD · #58	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	19:19
R. SheaD · #5	0	1	3	0	0	1	0	17:20
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	20:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT wins series 3-0

Jan 2

DET3@

PIT4

Jan 3

PIT4@

DET1

Mar 31

DET1@

PIT5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-10852%

PIT-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 60 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat DET 5-1. N. Acciari led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	1	0	1
PIT	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

DET won 0 · PIT won 2

DET

PIT

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·19:25
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·19:25
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·19:22
Moritz Seider shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·19:00
Moritz Seider Slap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·18:50
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Patrick Kane
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·18:26
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Anthony Mantha
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Marco Kasper
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·17:50
Emmitt Finnie shot blocked by Ben Kindel
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·17:29
Marco Kasper hit Samuel Girard
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·17:11
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·17:04
Connor Dewar hit Carter Mazur
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·17:00
Noel Acciari hit Albert Johansson
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·16:37
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·16:37
Puck in Netting
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·16:35
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:46
Marco Kasper hit Ben Kindel
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:25
Takeaway by Kris Letang
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:21
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:21
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:19
Justin Brazeau Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:14
Takeaway by Ben Kindel
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·15:07
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·14:56
Justin Brazeau Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·14:41
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·14:41
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·14:39
Anthony Mantha Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 1·PIT 5
3rd·14:11
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
DET 1·PIT 5

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -108/PIT -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Detroit Red Wings, 5–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Anthony Mantha · PIT17:240.7663.9%81.6%17:24 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 63.9% CF · 81.6% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET18:360.6666.7%76.7%18:36 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 66.7% CF · 76.7% xGF
Noel Acciari · PIT14:360.5748.3%46.9%14:36 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 48.3% CF · 46.9% xGF
Evgeni Malkin · PIT17:300.5270.0%79.6%17:30 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 70.0% CF · 79.6% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT17:180.5154.3%58.6%17:18 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 54.3% CF · 58.6% xGF
Andrew Copp · DET17:540.4760.9%68.8%17:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 60.9% CF · 68.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Stuart Skinner · PIT22–1.957+1.4922–1 · .957 SV% · +1.49 GSAx
Cam Talbot · DET16–2.889+0.0216–2 · .889 SV% · +0.02 GSAx
John Gibson · DET11–3.786-1.4811–3 · .786 SV% · -1.48 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
57.2%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.2%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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