
DET
39-27-8

PIT
38-21-16
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ittsburgh Penguins held off Detroit Red Wings, 5–1.
PIT +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer

Patrick Kane
RW · #88
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov
RW · #59
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


DET
39-27-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
PIT
38-21-16
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
13
PIM
9
Season series
PIT wins series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 11 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
PIT beat DET 5-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Period scoring
DET won 0 · PIT won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 337 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·19:25
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·19:25
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·19:22
Moritz Seider shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·19:00
Moritz Seider Slap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·18:50
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Patrick Kane
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·18:26
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Anthony Mantha
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Marco Kasper
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·17:50
Emmitt Finnie shot blocked by Ben Kindel
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·17:29
Marco Kasper hit Samuel Girard
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·17:11
Dylan Larkin Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·17:04
Connor Dewar hit Carter Mazur
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·17:00
Noel Acciari hit Albert Johansson
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·16:37
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·16:37
Puck in Netting
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·16:35
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:46
Marco Kasper hit Ben Kindel
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:25
Takeaway by Kris Letang
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:21
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:21
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:19
Justin Brazeau Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:14
Takeaway by Ben Kindel
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·15:07
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·14:56
Justin Brazeau Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·14:41
Emmitt Finnie faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·14:41
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·14:39
Anthony Mantha Tip-In saved by Cam Talbot
·
DET 1·PIT 5
- 3rd·14:11
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
DET 1·PIT 5
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
PIT
Home
23
Shots
32
100.0
PCT
0.0
13
PIM
9
32
Faceoffs W
29
13
Blocks
13
17
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
6
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -108/PIT -112
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RWSHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · DSKATE MPH22.897
Alex DeBrincatDET · RWDIST MI252.196
Emmitt FinnieDET · CBURSTS19394
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-112
Close price
-112
Open no-vig
50.4%
Close no-vig
50.4%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit