Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BOS

DAL

44-19-12

BOS

43-24-8

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -130

DAL · top performer

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Viktor Arvidsson

LW · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	12:29
J. BennLW · #14	1	0	0	4	0	1	2	17:12
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	13:22
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:15
M. DucheneC · #95	1	0	-2	2	1	0	0	16:25
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	11:29
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:16
C. HughesC · #34	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:34
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	-2	0	5	0	0	12:03
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	1	-1	1	2	3	0	23:04
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	22:25
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	2	-3	2	0	0	2	21:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	15:12
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	21:39
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	-2	0	0	2	0	25:03
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	20:14
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:53
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	13:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	22	4	18	.818	58:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	3	0	1	5	0	0	2	14:20
M. GeekieC · #39	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:02
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:28
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:35
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:26
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	15:43
E. LindholmC · #28	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	14:55
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:22
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:29
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	3	2	3	0	0	0	18:27
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	12:25
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:22
H. JokiharjuD · #20	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	16:47
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	2	0	1	1	2	19:10
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	2	1	2	3	0	22:41
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	21:15
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	2	7	1	2	18:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KorpisaloG · #70	16	3	13	.813	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 21

BOS2@

DAL6

Mar 31

DAL3@

BOS6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-13057%

BOS+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat DAL 6-3. V. Arvidsson led the way — 3 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	2	1	3
BOS	2	0	4	6

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · BOS won 2

DAL

BOS

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 3·BOS 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:47
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
DAL 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:47
Viktor Arvidsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (47)
·
DAL 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:40
Giveaway by Jamie Benn
DAL 3·BOS 5
3rd·19:22
Casey Mittelstadt Snap Shot Wide Left
DAL 3·BOS 5
3rd·19:16
Giveaway by Jason Robertson
DAL 3·BOS 5
3rd·19:02
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
DAL 3·BOS 5
3rd·19:02
Wyatt Johnston Goal (41) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (49), Miro Heiskanen (52)
· ·
DAL 3·BOS 5
3rd·18:19
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Jamie Benn
· ·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·18:19
Puck in Crowd
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·18:16
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·17:50
Nikita Zadorov Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·17:41
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Jamie Benn
·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·17:41
TV Timeout
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·17:41
Hampus Lindholm Tripping against Cameron Hughes
· ·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·17:34
Marat Khusnutdinov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·17:25
Takeaway by Justin Hryckowian
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Nils Lundkvist
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·16:23
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·16:23
Viktor Arvidsson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none
DAL 2·BOS 5
3rd·15:56
Nikita Zadorov hit Ilya Lyubushkin
·
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·14:55
Mavrik Bourque Tip-In Wide Right
·
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·14:21
Giveaway by Henri Jokiharju
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·14:01
Viktor Arvidsson Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·13:57
Giveaway by Mikko Rantanen
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·13:50
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·13:20
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Jamie Benn
· ·
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·13:20
Goalie Stopped
DAL 2·BOS 4
3rd·13:18
Jamie Benn Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
DAL 2·BOS 4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -130/BOS +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Dallas Stars, 6–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jamie Benn · DAL17:360.7750.0%50.6%17:36 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 50.0% CF · 50.6% xGF
Marat Khusnutdinov · BOS14:360.7575.0%71.5%14:36 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 75.0% CF · 71.5% xGF
Viktor Arvidsson · BOS14:420.4453.8%52.5%14:42 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 53.8% CF · 52.5% xGF
Jason Robertson · DAL21:360.4251.9%52.7%21:36 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 51.9% CF · 52.7% xGF
Henri Jokiharju · BOS18:060.4063.0%51.7%18:06 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 63.0% CF · 51.7% xGF
Colin Blackwell · DAL13:300.3739.1%39.2%13:30 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 39.1% CF · 39.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joonas Korpisalo · BOS13–3.813-0.9813–3 · .813 SV% · -0.98 GSAx
Jake Oettinger · DAL18–4.818-1.8918–4 · .818 SV% · -1.89 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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