NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

MTL

43-21-10

46-22-6

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesTB leads series 2-1VegasTB -170

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	3	4	0	6	12:31
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	10:37
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	17:05
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:43
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:43
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	4	2	14:43
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8:18
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:30
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	14:45
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	1	2	1	2	2	0	19:12
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	0	2	5	1	1	2	20:27
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	13:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21:45
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	1	0	2	3	2	18:14
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	26:11
M. MathesonD · #8	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	23:28
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	13:48
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	37	1	36	.973	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	15:49
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	12:42
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	13:43
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	14:19
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	0	-1	2	0	2	6	21:06
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-3	5	0	0	0	22:21
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:15
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	-3	6	1	0	4	23:10
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	10:47
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:50
B. PointC · #21	0	0	-1	5	0	0	0	20:32
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	9:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	5	3	1	2	15:58
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2	17:23
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	0	5	2	6	17:17
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	19:33
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:55
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	23:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	21	2	19	.905	57:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+14241%

TB-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 4-1. C. Caufield led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	1	2	4
TB	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · TB won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·20:00
Ryan McDonagh Roughing against Josh Anderson
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·20:00
Josh Anderson Roughing against Ryan McDonagh
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:49
Josh Anderson hit Ryan McDonagh
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Joseph Veleno Roughing against Erik Cernak
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Erik Cernak Roughing against Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Jayden Struble Roughing against Nick Paul
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Nick Paul Roughing against Jayden Struble
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Brendan Gallagher Roughing against Emil Lilleberg
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Emil Lilleberg Roughing against Brendan Gallagher
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Phillip Danault Roughing against Gage Goncalves
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Gage Goncalves Roughing against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Arber Xhekaj Roughing against Scott Sabourin
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Scott Sabourin Roughing against Arber Xhekaj
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:20
Arber Xhekaj hit Scott Sabourin
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:13
Nick Paul hit Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·18:54
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·18:54
Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:32
Kaiden Guhle hit Jake Guentzel
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:25
Brandon Hagel Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:18
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:18
High Stick
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:15
Takeaway by Nick Suzuki
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·17:54
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·17:54
Mike Matheson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: none
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·17:41
Josh Anderson hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:35
Corey Perry Tip-In High and Wide Left
·
MTL 2·TB 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +142/TB -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brayden Point · TBL20:480.7459.5%71.6%20:48 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 59.5% CF · 71.6% xGF
Nikita Kucherov · TBL23:180.6671.7%67.6%23:18 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 71.7% CF · 67.6% xGF
Pontus Holmberg · TBL11:240.6476.5%81.5%11:24 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 76.5% CF · 81.5% xGF
Ryan McDonagh · TBL19:480.5364.1%71.2%19:48 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 64.1% CF · 71.2% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL20:480.4550.0%46.7%20:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 50.0% CF · 46.7% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL17:240.3458.8%62.9%17:24 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 58.8% CF · 62.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL36–1.973+3.1136–1 · .973 SV% · +3.11 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL19–2.905+0.1519–2 · .905 SV% · +0.15 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
60.5%
P(TB win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.5%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
60.9%
P(TB win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL