NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

MTL

43-21-10

46-22-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesTB leads series 2-1VegasTB -170

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Zemgus Girgensons

C · #28

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MTL43-21-10

TB46-22-6

MTL43-21-10TB46-22-6

MTL

43-21-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

46-22-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+14241%

TB-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	1	2	4
TB	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · TB won 0

MTL

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·20:00
Ryan McDonagh Roughing against Josh Anderson
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·20:00
Josh Anderson Roughing against Ryan McDonagh
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:49
Josh Anderson hit Ryan McDonagh
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Joseph Veleno Roughing against Erik Cernak
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Erik Cernak Roughing against Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Jayden Struble Roughing against Nick Paul
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Nick Paul Roughing against Jayden Struble
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Brendan Gallagher Roughing against Emil Lilleberg
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Emil Lilleberg Roughing against Brendan Gallagher
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Phillip Danault Roughing against Gage Goncalves
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Gage Goncalves Roughing against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Arber Xhekaj Roughing against Scott Sabourin
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:23
Scott Sabourin Roughing against Arber Xhekaj
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:20
Arber Xhekaj hit Scott Sabourin
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·19:13
Nick Paul hit Joseph Veleno
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·18:54
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·18:54
Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none
MTL 4·TB 1
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:32
Kaiden Guhle hit Jake Guentzel
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:25
Brandon Hagel Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:18
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:18
High Stick
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·18:15
Takeaway by Nick Suzuki
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·17:54
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·17:54
Mike Matheson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: none
MTL 3·TB 1
3rd·17:41
Josh Anderson hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:35
Corey Perry Tip-In High and Wide Left
·
MTL 2·TB 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +142/TB -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands