Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3FLA

OTT

38-26-10

FLA

36-35-3

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesFLA leads series 3-0VegasOTT -180

OTT · top performer

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

2Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:20
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:16
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:09
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	20:21
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:08
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:20
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:17
R. GreigC · #71	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:53
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	20:48
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	21:05
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	20:18
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	22:39
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	16:36
J. SpenceD · #10	1	0	-2	4	1	0	0	24:05
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	13:49
C. YakemchukD · #58	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:42
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	15:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	16	5	11	.688	14:36
J. ReimerG · #47	13	1	12	.923	41:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	2	0	3	0	1	2	17:19
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:51
A.J. GreerLW · #10	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:51
N. GregorLW · #18	1	0	0	1	2	0	15	9:25
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	10:16
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	11:04
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	15:51
T. NosekLW · #92	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	15:21
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	10:25
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	12:46
M. TkachukLW · #19	1	3	0	5	1	0	0	17:13
C. VerhaegheC · #23	2	1	0	6	1	1	0	16:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:09
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:49
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	24:26
S. JonesD · #3	0	3	2	1	1	1	0	25:20
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	15:00
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	1	2	0	2	2	0	17:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	26	3	23	.885	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA leads series 3-0

Oct 11

OTT2@

FLA6

Jan 11

FLA3@

OTT2

Mar 31

OTT3@

FLA6today

Apr 9

FLA1@

OTT5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-18064%

FLA+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 59 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat OTT 6-3. C. Verhaeghe led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	0	2	1	3
FLA	5	1	0	6

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · FLA won 1

OTT

FLA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·19:37
Warren Foegele Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Tomas Nosek
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·19:08
Tyler Kleven Slap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·18:51
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·18:51
Puck in Netting
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·18:49
Warren Foegele Tip-In Wide Right
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·18:43
Lassi Thomson shot blocked by Mackie Samoskevich
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·18:13
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot Wide Left
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·18:00
Dylan Cozens hit Gustav Forsling
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·17:15
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Carter Verhaeghe
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·17:15
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·17:12
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·17:10
Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·17:09
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·16:51
Warren Foegele shot blocked by Seth Jones
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·16:28
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Tomas Nosek
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·16:04
Brady Tkachuk Slap Shot Wide Right
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·15:35
Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Donovan Sebrango
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·15:22
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·15:22
Gustav Forsling Tripping against Tim Stützle
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·15:04
Giveaway by Claude Giroux
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·14:44
Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot Short
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·14:12
Dylan Cozens hit Sam Bennett
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·13:58
Dylan Cozens Tip-In saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·13:54
Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·13:21
Jordan Spence Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·13:16
Giveaway by Daniil Tarasov
OTT 3·FLA 6
3rd·12:26
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·FLA 6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -180/FLA +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Ottawa Senators, 6–3.

FLA +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Matthew Tkachuk · FLA17:361.0667.5%77.1%17:36 TOI · 1.06 iXG · 67.5% CF · 77.1% xGF
Carter Verhaeghe · FLA17:120.7968.4%81.9%17:12 TOI · 0.79 iXG · 68.4% CF · 81.9% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA17:420.6168.3%79.6%17:42 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 68.3% CF · 79.6% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA20:360.6066.0%56.8%20:36 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 66.0% CF · 56.8% xGF
Fabian Zetterlund · OTT12:120.5769.6%70.5%12:12 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 69.6% CF · 70.5% xGF
A.J. Greer · ANA17:000.5646.5%47.0%17:00 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 46.5% CF · 47.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

James Reimer · OTT12–1.923+0.7212–1 · .923 SV% · +0.72 GSAx
Daniil Tarasov · FLA23–3.885-0.2923–3 · .885 SV% · -0.29 GSAx
Linus Ullmark · OTT11–5.688-2.2411–5 · .688 SV% · -2.24 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
51.8%
P(FLA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.8%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.8%
P(FLA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsFlorida Panthers

Elsewhere in the NHL