
OTT
38-26-10

FLA
36-35-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
lorida Panthers held off Ottawa Senators, 6–3.
FLA +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OTT · top performer

Michael Amadio
RW · #22
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk
LW · #19
1
G
3
A
—
SOG
NHL · Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


OTT
38-26-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
FLA
36-35-3
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
13
Season series
FLA leads series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OTT -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 12 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
FLA beat OTT 6-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| FLA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Period scoring
OTT won 2 · FLA won 1
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 311 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·19:37
Warren Foegele Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Tomas Nosek
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·19:08
Tyler Kleven Slap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·18:51
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·18:51
Puck in Netting
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·18:49
Warren Foegele Tip-In Wide Right
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·18:43
Lassi Thomson shot blocked by Mackie Samoskevich
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·18:13
Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot Wide Left
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·18:00
Dylan Cozens hit Gustav Forsling
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·17:15
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Carter Verhaeghe
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·17:15
Goalie Stopped
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·17:12
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·17:10
Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·17:09
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·16:51
Warren Foegele shot blocked by Seth Jones
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·16:28
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Tomas Nosek
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·16:04
Brady Tkachuk Slap Shot Wide Right
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·15:35
Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Donovan Sebrango
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·15:22
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·15:22
Gustav Forsling Tripping against Tim Stützle
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·15:04
Giveaway by Claude Giroux
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·14:44
Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot Short
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·14:12
Dylan Cozens hit Sam Bennett
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·13:58
Dylan Cozens Tip-In saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·13:54
Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
· ·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·13:21
Jordan Spence Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·13:16
Giveaway by Daniil Tarasov
OTT 3·FLA 6
- 3rd·12:26
Luke Kunin faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
OTT 3·FLA 6
Team stats
OTT
Away
Stat
FLA
Home
26
Shots
29
0.0
PCT
66.7
6
PIM
13
34
Faceoffs W
28
6
Blocks
14
16
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
1
Betting line
OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -180/FLA +150
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Gustav ForslingFLA · DSHOT MPH100.497
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · CSKATE MPH23.696
Sam BennettFLA · CDIST MI239.693
Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · DSKATE MPH22.592
Jesper BoqvistFLA · CSKATE MPH23.188
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · FLA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+150
Close price
+150
Open no-vig
38.4%
Close no-vig
38.4%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit