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FINAL+3FLA
OTT

OTT

38-26-10

36
FLA

FLA

36-35-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesFLA leads series 3-0VegasOTT -180

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Ottawa Senators, 6–3.

FLA +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

FLA
Matthew Tkachuk

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
OTT38-26-10FLA36-35-3
OTT

OTT

38-26-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
FLA

FLA

36-35-3

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

13

Season series

FLA leads series 3-0

Oct 11OTTOTT2@FLAFLA6
Jan 11FLAFLA3@OTTOTT2
Mar 31OTTOTT3@FLAFLA6today
Apr 9FLAFLA1@OTTOTT5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-18064%
FLAFLA+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat OTT 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT0213
FLA5106

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · FLA won 1

0
5

1

2
1

2

1
0

3

OTT
FLA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  3. 3rd·19:37

    Warren Foegele Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Giveaway by Tomas Nosek

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  5. 3rd·19:08

    Tyler Kleven Slap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  6. 3rd·18:51

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen

    · ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  7. 3rd·18:51

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  8. 3rd·18:49

    Warren Foegele Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  9. 3rd·18:43

    Lassi Thomson shot blocked by Mackie Samoskevich

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  10. 3rd·18:13

    Carter Verhaeghe Snap Shot Wide Left

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  11. 3rd·18:00

    Dylan Cozens hit Gustav Forsling

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  12. 3rd·17:15

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Carter Verhaeghe

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  13. 3rd·17:15

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  14. 3rd·17:12

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    · ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  15. 3rd·17:10

    Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  16. 3rd·17:09

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  17. 3rd·16:51

    Warren Foegele shot blocked by Seth Jones

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  18. 3rd·16:28

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Tomas Nosek

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  19. 3rd·16:04

    Brady Tkachuk Slap Shot Wide Right

    · ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  20. 3rd·15:35

    Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Donovan Sebrango

    · ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  21. 3rd·15:22

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  22. 3rd·15:22

    Gustav Forsling Tripping against Tim Stützle

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  23. 3rd·15:04

    Giveaway by Claude Giroux

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  25. 3rd·14:12

    Dylan Cozens hit Sam Bennett

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  26. 3rd·13:58

    Dylan Cozens Tip-In saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  27. 3rd·13:54

    Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    · ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  28. 3rd·13:21

    Jordan Spence Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  29. 3rd·13:16

    Giveaway by Daniil Tarasov

    OTT 3·FLA 6

  30. 3rd·12:26

    Luke Kunin faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·FLA 6

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

26

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

13

34

Faceoffs W

28

6

Blocks

14

16

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

1

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -180/FLA +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.696
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Jesper BoqvistFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.188

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR