Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NYR

38-34-2

NYR

31-35-9

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-1VegasNJ -125

NJ · top performer

Connor Brown

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Jaroslav Chmelar

RW · #49

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	11:08
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	19:03
C. BrownRW · #16	1	0	-1	3	0	1	0	21:06
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	8:05
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:09
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:39
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	10:05
N. HischierC · #13	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	19:38
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	21:58
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	18:29
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:51
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	7	0	2	17:37
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	-2	0	2	1	2	18:23
L. HughesD · #43	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	25:05
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	17:34
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:54
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	16:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	23	4	19	.826	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:50
J. ChmelarRW · #49	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:31
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	16:27
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	14:02
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:54
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:52
J.T. MillerLW · #8	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	19:10
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	14:42
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	12:37
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:02
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	22:07
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	18:30
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	13:48
A. FoxD · #23	0	2	1	0	1	1	0	22:37
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	22:18
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	18:32
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	1	1	1	4	3	0	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-1

Mar 7

NYR3@

NJ6

Mar 18

NJ6@

NYR3

Mar 31

NJ1@

NYR4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ-12556%

NYR+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 80 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat NJ 4-1. J. Chmelar led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	1	0	1
NYR	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · NYR won 2

NYR

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:58
Simon Nemec shot blocked by Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:47
Cody Glass Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:46
Noah Laba hit Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:23
Noah Laba hit Simon Nemec
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:18
Cody Glass shot blocked by Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:06
Takeaway by Maxim Tsyplakov
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·19:00
Brenden Dillon hit Vincent Trocheck
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·18:54
Will Cuylle hit Nick Bjugstad
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·18:50
Giveaway by Will Borgen
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·18:09
Jonny Brodzinski Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·16:41
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·16:19
Giveaway by Luke Hughes
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·16:14
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Jack Hughes
· ·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·16:14
Icing
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·16:05
Lenni Hameenaho Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·16:03
Cody Glass Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·15:59
Brenden Dillon Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·15:40
Maxim Tsyplakov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·15:32
Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·15:08
Simon Nemec shot blocked by Drew Fortescue
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·14:39
Paul Cotter hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·14:27
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·14:27
Icing
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·14:18
Luke Hughes Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
· ·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·14:12
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·14:12
Icing
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·13:57
J.T. Miller Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 1·NYR 4
3rd·13:52
Dougie Hamilton hit Jaroslav Chmelar
·
NJ 1·NYR 4

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ -125/NYR +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off New Jersey Devils, 4–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Connor Brown · NJD21:120.5242.1%39.3%21:12 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 42.1% CF · 39.3% xGF
Gabe Perreault · NYR15:060.4953.3%68.6%15:06 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 53.3% CF · 68.6% xGF
Mika Zibanejad · NYR17:300.4766.7%72.5%17:30 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 66.7% CF · 72.5% xGF
Conor Sheary · NYR12:420.4644.4%54.6%12:42 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 44.4% CF · 54.6% xGF
#848417710:120.4461.9%87.0%10:12 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 61.9% CF · 87.0% xGF
Jaroslav Chmelar · NYR10:420.4058.3%66.0%10:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 58.3% CF · 66.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR22–1.957+1.0022–1 · .957 SV% · +1.00 GSAx
Jacob Markstrom · FLA19–4.826-1.5019–4 · .826 SV% · -1.50 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
51.3%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.3%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.3%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL