Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

32-30-12

CHI

27-34-14

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesWPG wins series 3-1VegasWPG -155

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Tyler Bertuzzi

LW · #59

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	1	-1	4	0	0	0	21:07
P. FordC · #25	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	8:10
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	1	-2	0	3	0	0	16:18
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	14:12
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:01
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	17:01
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	0	0	4	0	1	2	18:49
I. RosenRW · #27	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:25
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	3	-1	1	0	1	0	20:32
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:45
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:27
D. ZhilkinC · #53	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	6:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	10:47
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	23:44
J. MorrisseyD · #44	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	23:42
N. PionkD · #4	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	22:55
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	14:44
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	23:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	21	3	18	.857	60:33

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:57
T. BertuzziLW · #59	2	0	2	3	4	0	0	20:03
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:50
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:06
A. FrondellC · #16	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	16:49
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:34
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:53
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:46
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	17:29
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:46
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:11
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	2	2	1	1	3	0	20:37
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	14:13
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	-2	2	3	1	0	23:07
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:58
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	22:44
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	20:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	24	4	20	.833	60:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG wins series 3-1

Oct 31

CHI3@

WPG6

Jan 20

WPG0@

CHI2

Mar 4

CHI2@

WPG3

Apr 1

WPG4@

CHI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG-15561%

CHI+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 85 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat CHI 4-3. K. Connor led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
WPG	0	3	0	1	4
CHI	1	1	1	0	3

Period scoring

WPG won 2 · CHI won 2

WPG

CHI

Play-by-play · 271 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:33
Game End
WPG 4·CHI 3
OT·0:33
End of OT
WPG 4·CHI 3
OT·0:33
Kyle Connor Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (58), Josh Morrissey (39)
· ·
WPG 4·CHI 3
OT·0:00
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Anton Frondell
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:51
Frank Nazar Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:49
Alex Vlasic shot blocked by Adam Lowry
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:40
Tyler Bertuzzi Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:25
Dylan DeMelo hit Frank Nazar
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:12
Parker Ford hit Frank Nazar
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:09
Frank Nazar Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·19:00
Parker Ford Tip-In Wide Left
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·18:57
Landon Slaggert hit Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·17:06
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Anton Frondell
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·17:06
Puck in Netting
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·17:03
Tyler Bertuzzi Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·16:51
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Anton Frondell
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·16:51
Goalie Stopped
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·16:49
Cole Koepke Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·16:02
Giveaway by Kyle Connor
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·15:24
Takeaway by Tyler Bertuzzi
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·15:01
Wyatt Kaiser Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·14:52
Sam Rinzel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·14:49
Neal Pionk hit Connor Bedard
· ·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·14:34
Takeaway by Adam Lowry
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·14:13
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·14:13
Goalie Stopped
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·14:11
Teuvo Teravainen Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 3·CHI 3
3rd·13:10
Danil Zhilkin hit Ethan Del Mastro
·
WPG 3·CHI 3

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG -155/CHI +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (WPG won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.8%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.8%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL