Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at EDM?

The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

43-21-4

EDM

34-28-9

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -135

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	10:10
A. CirelliC · #71	2	0	2	5	0	0	5	10:28
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	14:09
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	14:13
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:16
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:22
B. HagelLW · #38	0	2	3	2	0	1	0	20:47
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	7	11:00
N. KucherovRW · #86	2	2	3	7	0	0	2	19:53
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:01
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:59
B. PointC · #21	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	17:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	20:14
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	11:58
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:02
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	22:01
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	22:42
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	26:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	27	2	26	.963	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	15:44
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	9:29
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	20:28
R. JarventieLW · #15	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	8:30
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	9:27
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	17:37
C. McDavidC · #97	1	0	-3	4	0	2	4	22:42
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	19:56
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	0	2	4	0	5	14:08
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	12:43
J. SamanskiC · #81	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	10:05
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	1	-3	3	0	0	0	27:37
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	-2	0	2	3	0	23:49
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:18
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	17:23
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	0	3	8	1	2	20:26
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	27	4	23	.852	58:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Nov 21

EDM1@

TB2

Mar 22

TB5@

EDM2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-13557%

EDM+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat EDM 5-2. N. Kucherov led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	3	2	5
EDM	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

TB won 2 · EDM won 1

EDM

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 5·EDM 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 5·EDM 2
3rd·19:28
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
TB 5·EDM 2
3rd·19:28
Anthony Cirelli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none
TB 5·EDM 2
3rd·19:25
Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·19:09
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·19:09
Erik Cernak Cross-checking against Vasily Podkolzin
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:58
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:58
Goalie Stopped
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:56
Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:44
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:00
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·18:00
Off-side
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·17:23
Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·17:21
Giveaway by Matt Savoie
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Jake Guentzel
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:50
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:50
TV Timeout
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:50
Max Jones Hooking against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:32
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:32
Nikita Kucherov Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (35)
·
TB 4·EDM 2
3rd·15:30
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·14:20
Jason Dickinson Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·14:06
Giveaway by Kasperi Kapanen
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·13:58
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·13:58
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·13:40
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·13:40
Puck in Crowd
TB 3·EDM 2
3rd·13:21
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
TB 3·EDM 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -135/EDM +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
47.4%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
47.4%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at EDM?: The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningEdmonton Oilers

Elsewhere in the NHL