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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

43-21-4

52
EDM

EDM

34-28-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -135

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 5–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Nikita Kucherov

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
TB43-21-4EDM34-28-9
TB

TB

43-21-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

34-28-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

PIM

18

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Nov 21EDMEDM1@TBTB2
Mar 22TBTB5@EDMEDM2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-13557%
EDMEDM+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat EDM 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB0325
EDM1012

Period scoring

TB won 2 · EDM won 1

0
1

1

3
0

2

2
1

3

TB
EDM

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 5·EDM 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 5·EDM 2

  3. 3rd·19:28

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Josh Samanski

    ·

    TB 5·EDM 2

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Anthony Cirelli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    TB 5·EDM 2

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli

    TB 4·EDM 2

  6. 3rd·19:09

    Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  7. 3rd·19:09

    Erik Cernak Cross-checking against Vasily Podkolzin

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  8. 3rd·18:58

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  9. 3rd·18:58

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 4·EDM 2

  10. 3rd·18:56

    Evan Bouchard Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  11. 3rd·18:49

    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov

    TB 4·EDM 2

  12. 3rd·18:44

    Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  13. 3rd·18:00

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  14. 3rd·18:00

    Off-side

    TB 4·EDM 2

  15. 3rd·17:23

    Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  16. 3rd·17:21

    Giveaway by Matt Savoie

    TB 4·EDM 2

  17. 3rd·16:38

    Giveaway by Jake Guentzel

    TB 4·EDM 2

  18. 3rd·15:50

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  19. 3rd·15:50

    TV Timeout

    TB 4·EDM 2

  20. 3rd·15:50

    Max Jones Hooking against Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  21. 3rd·15:32

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  22. 3rd·15:32

    Nikita Kucherov Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (35)

    ·

    TB 4·EDM 2

  23. 3rd·15:30

    Takeaway by Brandon Hagel

    TB 3·EDM 2

  24. 3rd·14:20

    Jason Dickinson Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    TB 3·EDM 2

  25. 3rd·14:06

    Giveaway by Kasperi Kapanen

    TB 3·EDM 2

  26. 3rd·13:58

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    TB 3·EDM 2

  27. 3rd·13:58

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    TB 3·EDM 2

  28. 3rd·13:40

    Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Josh Samanski

    ·

    TB 3·EDM 2

  29. 3rd·13:40

    Puck in Crowd

    TB 3·EDM 2

  30. 3rd·13:21

    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    TB 3·EDM 2

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

28

Shots

27

33.3

PCT

0.0

18

PIM

18

26

Faceoffs W

23

13

Blocks

17

19

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -135/EDM +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Mattias EkholmEDM · D
    SHOT MPH92.979

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR