Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NSH

VGK

31-25-14

NSH

32-28-9

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-1VegasVGK -155

VGK · top performer

Shea Theodore

D · #27

1Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	-1	4	0	0	0	14:59
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:14
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	20:49
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	11:20
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	3	0	2	0	21:43
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:45
B. HowdenC · #21	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	12:14
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:00
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	21:54
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:22
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	14:38
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	20:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	18:38
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:25
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	12:51
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	15:20
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	18:34
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	0	-1	3	0	0	4	19:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	20	4	16	.800	55:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	14:39
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	20:19
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	16:29
T. JostC · #17	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:20
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	15:15
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:05
R. O'ReillyC · #90	1	1	1	5	0	0	2	19:06
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	7:29
S. StamkosC · #91	2	1	1	2	0	0	2	17:39
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:18
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:16
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:15
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	25:08
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	24:18
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	19:05
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	1	2	1	2	2	0	23:08
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	40	1	39	.975	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH wins series 2-1

Dec 31

NSH4@

VGK2

Jan 18

NSH2@

VGK7

Mar 21

VGK1@

NSH4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-15561%

NSH+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat VGK 4-1. S. Stamkos led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	1	0	1
NSH	1	3	0	4

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · NSH won 2

VGK

NSH

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·19:48
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·19:39
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Pavel Dorofeyev
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·19:04
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·18:16
Brett Howden Tip-In saved by Justus Annunen
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·18:13
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·18:13
Icing
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·18:09
Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot Wide Right
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·17:29
Takeaway by Brady Skjei
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·17:09
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·17:05
Giveaway by Roman Josi
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·17:01
Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Nick Perbix
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·16:59
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·16:59
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·16:34
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Nick Perbix
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·16:21
Giveaway by Nick Perbix
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:34
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Brady Skjei
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:33
Mark Stone hit Steven Stamkos
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:22
Pavel Dorofeyev hit Steven Stamkos
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:17
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:12
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:12
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·15:09
Keegan Kolesar Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·14:52
Tyson Jost Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·14:20
Fedor Svechkov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·13:51
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov
·
VGK 1·NSH 4
3rd·13:51
Off-side
VGK 1·NSH 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -155/NSH +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–1.

NSH +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ryan O'Reilly · NSH19:000.8139.5%45.6%19:00 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 39.5% CF · 45.6% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK20:420.6578.0%72.9%20:42 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 78.0% CF · 72.9% xGF
Ivan Barbashev · VGK15:120.6470.6%79.1%15:12 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 70.6% CF · 79.1% xGF
Luke Evangelista · NSH14:420.5650.0%57.8%14:42 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 50.0% CF · 57.8% xGF
Mitch Marner · VGK21:480.4376.2%74.0%21:48 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 76.2% CF · 74.0% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK20:120.3864.4%61.3%20:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 64.4% CF · 61.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Justus Annunen · NSH39–1.975+2.5239–1 · .975 SV% · +2.52 GSAx
Akira Schmid · FLA16–4.800-1.6316–4 · .800 SV% · -1.63 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL