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FINAL+3NSH
VGK

VGK

31-25-14

14
NSH

NSH

32-28-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-1VegasVGK -155

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–1.

NSH +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Steven Stamkos

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
VGK31-25-14NSH32-28-9
VGK

VGK

31-25-14

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

32-28-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

12

Season series

NSH wins series 2-1

Dec 31NSHNSH4@VGKVGK2
Jan 18NSHNSH2@VGKVGK7
Mar 21VGKVGK1@NSHNSH4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-15561%
NSHNSH+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat VGK 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0101
NSH1304

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · NSH won 2

0
1

1

1
3

2

0
0

3

VGK
NSH

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  3. 3rd·19:48

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  5. 3rd·19:08

    Giveaway by Pavel Dorofeyev

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  6. 3rd·19:04

    Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  7. 3rd·18:16

    Brett Howden Tip-In saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  8. 3rd·18:13

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  9. 3rd·18:13

    Icing

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  10. 3rd·18:09

    Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot Wide Right

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  11. 3rd·18:08

    Giveaway by Jack Eichel

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  12. 3rd·17:29

    Takeaway by Brady Skjei

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  13. 3rd·17:09

    Shea Theodore Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  14. 3rd·17:05

    Giveaway by Roman Josi

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  15. 3rd·17:01

    Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Nick Perbix

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  16. 3rd·16:59

    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  17. 3rd·16:59

    Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  18. 3rd·16:34

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Nick Perbix

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  19. 3rd·16:21

    Giveaway by Nick Perbix

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  20. 3rd·15:34

    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Brady Skjei

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  21. 3rd·15:33

    Mark Stone hit Steven Stamkos

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  22. 3rd·15:22

    Pavel Dorofeyev hit Steven Stamkos

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  23. 3rd·15:17

    Giveaway by Shea Theodore

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  24. 3rd·15:12

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  25. 3rd·15:12

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  26. 3rd·15:09

    Keegan Kolesar Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  27. 3rd·14:52

    Tyson Jost Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  28. 3rd·14:20

    Fedor Svechkov Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  29. 3rd·13:51

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov

    ·

    VGK 1·NSH 4

  30. 3rd·13:51

    Off-side

    VGK 1·NSH 4

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

40

Shots

20

25.0

PCT

50.0

12

PIM

12

40

Faceoffs W

29

8

Blocks

15

14

Giveaways

14

2

Takeaways

8

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -155/NSH +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR