NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

NYI

39-26-5

MTL

38-21-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMTL -120

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off New York Islanders, 7–3.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYI39-26-5

MTL38-21-10

NYI39-26-5MTL38-21-10

NYI

39-26-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MTL

38-21-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 27

NYI4@

MTL3

Mar 21

NYI3@

MTL7today

Apr 12

MTL4@

NYI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+10050%

MTL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NYI 7-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	2	0	1	3
MTL	1	2	4	7

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · MTL won 2

NYI

MTL

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:33
Marc Gatcomb shot blocked by Alex Newhook
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:10
Alexandre Carrier hit Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:59
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:59
Off-side
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:46
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:17
Jake Evans faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:17
Off-side
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:17
Challenge Vis - off-side - no goal
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:05
Emil Heineman Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:04
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:27
Giveaway by Alexandre Texier
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:17
Ondrej Palat hit Phillip Danault
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:06
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Noah Dobson
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:51
Marc Gatcomb Tip-In saved by Jacob Fowler
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:38
Marc Gatcomb hit Alexandre Carrier
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:28
Jayden Struble hit Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:20
Giveaway by Brendan Gallagher
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Scott Mayfield
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:08
Joseph Veleno hit Scott Mayfield
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Nick Suzuki Misconduct
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Brayden Schenn Misconduct
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Cole Caufield Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (61)
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:51
Giveaway by Juraj Slafkovský
NYI 3·MTL 6
3rd·14:28
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
NYI 3·MTL 6
3rd·14:28
TV Timeout
NYI 3·MTL 6
3rd·14:28
Kaiden Guhle Misconduct
NYI 3·MTL 6

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +100/MTL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MTL vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high
Ivan DemidovMTL
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Lane HutsonMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Nick SuzukiMTL
0.9± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands