Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

NYI

39-26-5

MTL

38-21-10

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMTL -120

NYI · top performer

Emil Heineman

LW · #51

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	-2	4	2	0	14	18:24
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	13:20
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:37
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	10:46
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:46
S. HolmstromRW · #92	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:09
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	-2	2	1	0	0	20:21
A. LeeLW · #27	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	17:15
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	13:55
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	11:42
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:11
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-1	0	3	2	10	15:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	1	-2	3	3	0	4	21:01
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:48
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	-1	1	0	2	0	20:29
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	22:19
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	0	-2	3	1	2	0	22:25
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	4	1	3	.750	8:11
I. SorokinG · #30	32	6	26	.813	50:47

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	6	5	1	0	14:11
C. CaufieldRW · #13	3	2	2	3	0	0	0	16:07
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:30
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:14
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:02
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	1	0	2	0	1	2	13:15
O. KapanenC · #91	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:50
A. NewhookC · #15	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	13:52
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	2	2	2	4	1	1	0	17:14
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	4	2	3	2	0	10	18:47
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:38
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	12:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	20:37
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	1	3	0	5	2	21:27
K. GuhleD · #21	1	2	3	3	2	4	14	16:21
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:42
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	1	3	2	3	0	21:45
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	22	3	19	.864	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 27

NYI4@

MTL3

Mar 21

NYI3@

MTL7today

Apr 12

MTL4@

NYI1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+10050%

MTL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NYI 7-3. C. Caufield led the way — 3 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	2	0	1	3
MTL	1	2	4	7

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · MTL won 2

NYI

MTL

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:33
Marc Gatcomb shot blocked by Alex Newhook
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·19:10
Alexandre Carrier hit Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:59
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:59
Off-side
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:46
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:17
Jake Evans faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:17
Off-side
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·18:17
Challenge Vis - off-side - no goal
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:33
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:05
Emil Heineman Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·17:04
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:27
Giveaway by Alexandre Texier
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:17
Ondrej Palat hit Phillip Danault
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·16:06
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Noah Dobson
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:51
Marc Gatcomb Tip-In saved by Jacob Fowler
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:38
Marc Gatcomb hit Alexandre Carrier
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:28
Jayden Struble hit Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:20
Giveaway by Brendan Gallagher
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Scott Mayfield
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·15:08
Joseph Veleno hit Scott Mayfield
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Nick Suzuki Misconduct
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Brayden Schenn Misconduct
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:59
Cole Caufield Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (61)
·
NYI 3·MTL 7
3rd·14:51
Giveaway by Juraj Slafkovský
NYI 3·MTL 6
3rd·14:28
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
NYI 3·MTL 6
3rd·14:28
TV Timeout
NYI 3·MTL 6
3rd·14:28
Kaiden Guhle Misconduct
NYI 3·MTL 6

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +100/MTL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off New York Islanders, 7–3.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Zachary Bolduc · MTL14:240.6366.7%78.5%14:24 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 66.7% CF · 78.5% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL16:300.4442.9%64.4%16:30 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 42.9% CF · 64.4% xGF
Alex Newhook · MTL14:060.4336.7%54.9%14:06 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 36.7% CF · 54.9% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL17:240.4173.5%79.6%17:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 73.5% CF · 79.6% xGF
Mathew Barzal · NYI18:300.4160.0%61.3%18:30 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 60.0% CF · 61.3% xGF
Brendan Gallagher · VAN13:240.3556.3%57.4%13:24 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 56.3% CF · 57.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Fowler · MTL19–3.864-0.5219–3 · .864 SV% · -0.52 GSAx
David Rittich · NYI3–1.750-0.723–1 · .750 SV% · -0.72 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI26–6.813-1.9326–6 · .813 SV% · -1.93 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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