NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

WPG

28-29-12

PIT

35-18-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPIT -162

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Winnipeg Jets, 5–4.

WPG +1.5 cashed (PIT won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WPG · top performer

Brad Lambert

C · #93

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

WPG28-29-12

PIT35-18-16

WPG28-29-12PIT35-18-16

WPG

28-29-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

35-18-16

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1

PIT2@

WPG5

Mar 21

WPG4@

PIT5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+13642%

PIT-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat WPG 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
WPG	1	1	2	0	0	4
PIT	2	1	1	0	1	5

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · PIT won 2

WPG

PIT

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Rickard Rakell Goal Wrist Shot
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Gustav Nyquist Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Jonathan Toews Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
WPG 0·PIT 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·4:58
Elias Salomonsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·4:31
Thomas Novak Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·4:16
Thomas Novak shot blocked by Josh Morrissey
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:38
Takeaway by Adam Lowry
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:23
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:23
Goalie Stopped
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:21
Sidney Crosby Tip-In Wide Left
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:00
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:00
Puck in Benches
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·2:57
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·2:57
On-Ice Official
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·2:55
Bryan Rust shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:40
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:40
Josh Morrissey Slashing against Sidney Crosby
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:38
Bryan Rust Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:25
Takeaway by Kris Letang
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:22
Kris Letang shot blocked by Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·0:55
Kris Letang hit Josh Morrissey
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·0:51
Kyle Connor hit Ben Kindel
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·0:48
Ben Kindel Tip-In Hit Left Post
·
WPG 4·PIT 4

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·WPG +136/PIT -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
DIST MI293.099+
Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
SKATE MPH24.299
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Morgan BarronWPG · C
SHOT MPH95.697
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

PIT vs WPG.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Kyle ConnorWPG
3.7± 1.8high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
2.7± 1.7high

Goals

Kyle ConnorWPG
0.6± 0.8high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Anthony ManthaPIT
0.3± 0.4high

Points

Mark ScheifeleWPG
1.4± 1.2high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands