Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

WPG

28-29-12

PIT

35-18-16

NHLSat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPIT -162

WPG · top performer

Brad Lambert

C · #93

2Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Erik Karlsson

D · #65

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:25
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-2	5	1	0	0	23:49
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	19:18
C. KoepkeLW · #45	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:08
B. LambertC · #93	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	13:45
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	18:16
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	8:44
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:15
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:53
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	24:28
J. ToewsC · #19	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	8:03
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	11:23
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	14:51
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-1	1	1	2	2	29:38
N. PionkD · #4	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	22:30
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	22:45
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	25:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	32	4	28	.875	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	16:18
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:28
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	1	2	5	0	2	0	17:39
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	20:47
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	15:32
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:58
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:44
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:22
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	16:45
R. RakellRW · #67	1	0	-1	2	1	1	0	17:15
B. RustRW · #17	0	2	-1	4	1	0	0	18:49
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	13:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	1	7	1	0	16:30
S. GirardD · #49	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	22:47
E. KarlssonD · #65	2	0	1	5	0	0	0	25:31
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	26:13
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8:45
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	2	0	2	2	2	0	23:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	25	4	21	.840	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1

PIT2@

WPG5

Mar 21

WPG4@

PIT5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+13642%

PIT-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat WPG 5-4. E. Karlsson led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
WPG	1	1	2	0	0	4
PIT	2	1	1	0	1	5

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · PIT won 2

WPG

PIT

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Rickard Rakell Goal Wrist Shot
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Gustav Nyquist Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Jonathan Toews Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 0·PIT 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
WPG 0·PIT 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·4:58
Elias Salomonsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·4:31
Thomas Novak Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·4:16
Thomas Novak shot blocked by Josh Morrissey
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:38
Takeaway by Adam Lowry
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:23
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:23
Goalie Stopped
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:21
Sidney Crosby Tip-In Wide Left
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:00
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·3:00
Puck in Benches
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·2:57
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·2:57
On-Ice Official
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·2:55
Bryan Rust shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:40
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:40
Josh Morrissey Slashing against Sidney Crosby
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:38
Bryan Rust Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:25
Takeaway by Kris Letang
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·1:22
Kris Letang shot blocked by Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·0:55
Kris Letang hit Josh Morrissey
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·0:51
Kyle Connor hit Ben Kindel
·
WPG 4·PIT 4
OT·0:48
Ben Kindel Tip-In Hit Left Post
·
WPG 4·PIT 4

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·WPG +136/PIT -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Winnipeg Jets, 5–4.

WPG +1.5 cashed (PIT won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Bryan Rust · PIT18:540.7262.2%60.6%18:54 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 62.2% CF · 60.6% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT17:360.6754.1%53.7%17:36 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 54.1% CF · 53.7% xGF
Ben Kindel · PIT14:120.6267.9%72.0%14:12 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 67.9% CF · 72.0% xGF
Kyle Connor · WPG23:480.6053.5%48.2%23:48 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 53.5% CF · 48.2% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT17:480.5739.4%36.9%17:48 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 39.4% CF · 36.9% xGF
Sidney Crosby · PIT21:000.4356.1%56.3%21:00 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 56.1% CF · 56.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Connor Hellebuyck · WPG28–4.875-0.3028–4 · .875 SV% · -0.30 GSAx
Arturs Silovs · PIT21–4.840-1.3221–4 · .840 SV% · -1.32 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(PIT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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